Heat index values over 100 degrees possible Sunday
Afternoon pop-up cloudbursts thorough Wednesday; stifling heat, humidity next weekend
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Here comes the summer swelter. The hottest weekend of the year so far is on the way.
It looks like we’ll finally crack the 90-degree mark on Saturday or Sunday in the Twin Cities, and it comes with a heap of humidity with dew points in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
Heat index (apparent temperature) values could reach 100 degrees across much of southern Minnesota on Sunday afternoon.
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In the meantime, we enjoy a couple more days of sunny mornings followed by billowy afternoon cumulus clouds that will produce local downpours.
Monday’s cell merger over Little Canada produced 2.5 inches of rain in about an hour before drifting southeast through St. Paul and fading.
Our showery encores return Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. In the beauty of chaotic summer air mass thunderstorms, there’s little chance of pinpointing precise locations of the tropical downpours more than an hour in advance.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s FV3 model still looks like it has the best handle on at least the probable extent of rainfall coverage across Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. The loop below runs between 1 p.m. and 11 p.m. Tuesday.
Highs Tuesday will run in the 80s once again across most of Minnesota, but notice how temperatures drop quickly back into the 70s after any passing showers:
Warmest 3 weeks of the year ahead
We’ve just entered the warmest three weeks of the year on average for Minnesota. The normal high for the Twin Cities has reached 84 degrees where it will remain through Aug. 23.
Thursday and Friday look like beautiful, warm Minnesota summer days. If you like the upper 80s, this is your time to hit the lake or the park.
Steamy weekend ahead
The hottest and most humid weekend of the year so far looks very likely next weekend. On the map below, check out the dew point plume surging into Minnesota between Friday and Sunday.
Dew points of 80 degrees anyone? It’s possible on Sunday.
Highs are likely to top 90 degrees by Saturday and especially Sunday.
The combination of 90-degree temperatures and dew points in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees look likely to push heat index values to and above 100 degrees Sunday afternoon.
NOAA’s Global Forecast System model is cranking out heat index values of 111 degrees for southwestern Minnesota at 4 p.m. Sunday. The GFS is notorious for being a little on the extreme side so let’s see how this plays out this week.
Some relief looks likely by Monday.