Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

A beautiful Wednesday followed by more rain Thursday into Friday

More locally heavy rain is possible for southern Minnesota

rain totals
Forecast rainfall Thursday into Friday
National Weather Service

Wednesday brings lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. More showers and thunderstorms develop Thursday into Friday with locally heavy rainfall possible. 

Warm and gorgeous Wednesday, but more rain coming 

Wednesday will likely be the nicest day for the rest of this week. It will be the only day with totally dry weather and abundant sunshine. Temperatures will range from the mid-80s south to the upper 70s north.

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Forecast highs Wednesday
National Weather Service

Clouds will stay at bay most of Wednesday night with lows ranging from the mid-50s north to the mid-60s south.

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Forecast lows Wednesday night
National Weather Service

Unfortunately, the weather doesn’t look fantastic for the Fourth of July holiday.

Clouds will increase with showers and thunderstorms developing from southwest to east. The wettest weather should remain in southern Minnesota most of the day but much of central Minnesota into western Wisconsin will get storms Thursday night into Friday.

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Forecast precipitation 5 a.m. Thursday through 1 p.m. Friday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

There is once again the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Most of southern Minnesota can expect 1 to 3 inches of rainfall into Friday with locally higher amounts.

rain totals
Forecast rainfall Thursday into Friday
National Weather Service

There will isolated areas that see more than 3 inches of rainfall. Some models produce as much as 4 to 6 inches of rain in those locally heavier bands. Where that happens could be anywhere in southern Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American model paints this heaviest band over the Twin Cities into western Wisconsin, but other models put it elsewhere in southern Minnesota:

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North American Mesoscale Forecast System model rainfall forecast for Thursday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

There’s a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday into Thursday night:

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Excessive rainfall outlook for Thursday into Thursday night
National Weather Service

Due to the afternoon rain and lack of sunshine, instability for severe weather should be fairly low. There’s a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Thursday into Thursday night.

SVR Thu
A marginal (level 1 of 5) risk of severe storms Thursday into Thursday night
National Weather Service

The weekend offers more spotty or isolated chances with less organized activity and low potential at heavy rain. 

Fourth of July climatology

It won’t be the hottest nor the coolest Independence Day but we might just make a run for the wettest.

4th climo
Climatology and weather extremes for the Fourth of July for the Twin Cities
Climate Central

If we can get more than 2.30 inches of rainfall before midnight Thursday night (which is possible), we’d beat a 124-year-old record for rainfall.