Severe risk for afternoon and evening highest across northern Minnesota

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center lays out an enhanced (level 3 of 5) severe weather risk across northern Minnesota Wednesday. A slight (level 2 of 5) risk zone covers most of the rest of Minnesota.

Our morning batch of storms from the Twin Cities south and west has stabilized the atmosphere for much of the day.

We’ll have to wait for the evening to see if we can generate another batch of storms around the Twin Cities, but storms are likely to flare across much of northern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

NOAA’s Finite­-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model shows storms developing in northern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon. One batch of storms may dive into northwestern Wisconsin Wednesday evening. Another wave may blow into the Twin Cites between about 8 and 10 p.m.

The forecast model loop below runs between 4 p.m. Wednesday and midnight Thursday.

The biggest risks from storms Wednesday are large hail and damaging winds. Intense updrafts in storms have the potential to produce hail of 2 or 3 inches in diameter with stronger storms.

Be prepared for severe weather watches and warnings Wednesday afternoon and evening.