Severe risk Wednesday: Strong storms may produce large hail and high winds

There’s a big yellow severe weather risk bull’s eye across Minnesota on Wednesday.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center lays out the risk zone on the map above. An unstable air mass may produce storms at any point Wednesday across much of Minnesota.

And the atmospheric profile Wednesday favors hailers dropping large hail that could reach 2 inches in diameter.

Here’s a clip from Wednesday’s convective discussion from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center.

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early evening.

...Upper Midwest... A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles, likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence increases.

The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds become increasingly veered over IA. With greater buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat before convection wanes overnight.

Forecast models vary widely on timing and coverage for storms Wednesday. There could be storms in Minnesota at any time on Wednesday. But the heaviest risk seems to favor late afternoon and evening.

NOAA’s HRRR model shows storms firing between noon Wednesday and midnight below.

Wednesday’s storms may feature heavy rainfall, large hail, and potentially damaging winds.

Keep an eye and ear out for possible severe weather watches and warnings on Wednesday.