Warm weekend, soaking rains on Tuesday. Friday frost?
Red flag warning posted Saturday afternoon in parts of southern Minnesota
It’ll feel more like June than April Saturday afternoon.
The average Twin Cities high temperature is 56 degrees on April 13. Saturday highs are expected to reach the upper 70s in the metro area. The average Twin Cities high temperature doesn’t reach the upper 70s until early June.
Saturday highs will be in the 70s across much of Minnesota plus western Wisconsin. Southwestern Minnesota will see some 80s. Parts of far northern Minnesota will have Saturday highs in the 60s, with 50s in parts of the northeast and a few 40s in portions of Lake County and Cook County.
Saturday afternoon wind gusts will be in the 20-30 mph range across most of southern and eastern Minnesota. Some higher gusts are possible in southwestern Minnesota. Relative humidity levels will be low this afternoon. There’s a red flag warning from noon to 7 p.m. today in southwestern Minnesota and much of south-central Minnesota.
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Here are details of one portion of the red flag warning:
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 154 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 ...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON... .Southerly winds 15 to 20mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph will combine with warm temperatures in the 70s and 80s to cause elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southwest and south-central Minnesota Saturday afternoon. Afternoon humidity will fall into the 20s at most locations within the Red Flag Warning, and a few spots could reach the upper teens across southwest Minnesota. MNZ064-073-074-082-083-091>093-131500- /O.UPG.KMPX.FW.A.0004.240413T1700Z-240414T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.FW.W.0005.240413T1700Z-240414T0000Z/ Yellow Medicine-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin- Faribault-Freeborn- 154 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 064, 073, 074, 082, 083, 091, 092, AND 093... The National Weather Service in Twin Cities/Chanhassen has issued a Red Flag Warning, which is in effect from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. * AFFECTED AREA...Southwest and portions of south-central Minnesota. * WIND...South from 15 to 20 mph, gusting 25 to 30 mph. * HUMIDITY... 20 to 30 percent. * IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not recommended. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior.
Winds will taper off Saturday night.
Updated forecast information will be posted by the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Sioux Falls, S.D. and La Crosse, Wis.
Temperature trends
Sunday high temps will be in the 70s across roughly the southern half of Minnesota, with mainly 60s to the north.
There will be some 50s in far northeastern Minnesota.
Monday highs will range from 70s in southern Minnesota to 50s in the far north.
Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower 60s on Tuesday, followed by upper 50s Wednesday, then around 50 Thursday and upper 40s on Friday. Be aware that morning low temps could be in the 30s across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Friday.
Below-normal temperatures are expected next weekend and into the start of the following week. Here’s the April 18 through April 22 temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center:
Soggy Tuesday
Scattered showers are possible in far northern Minnesota and the northwestern corner of Wisconsin Saturday and Saturday evening.
Sunday looks dry, then parts of northern Minnesota could see some scattered showers Monday, with an isolated shower possible elsewhere in the state.
Periods of rain and some embedded thunderstorms are on tap for Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night. Some showers could linger into Wednesday. Forecast models show the potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 1 a.m. Tuesday to 1 p.m. Wednesday:
Weather nugget
One year ago today, the Twin Cities high temperature was 87 degrees. It was the third day of a four-day stretch with Twin Cities highs in the 80s.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.