Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Brighter and breezy Friday with a very warm weekend ahead

Significant rainfall possible early next week

fri hi 8a
Forecast highs Friday
National Weather Service

Updated 9 a.m.

Friday will be mainly dry and partly cloudy. It will be breezy still. Warmer air moves in for the weekend with highs well into the 70s for many. Showers and thunderstorms develop Monday.

Pleasant Friday; very warm weekend ahead

We’ll have partly cloudy skies with some lingering clouds in northeastern Minnesota. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal for most, ranging from the low 60s south to the upper 40s along the North Shore. It will still be breezy with northwest winds at 10-20 mph.

FRI ANOM
Forecast temperature anomalies (departure from normal) Friday
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Pivotal Weather

Look for more sunshine this weekend for most. There will be a few showers possible in northern Minnesota as a disturbance grazes the international border.

sat prec
Forecast precipitation 7 a.m. Saturday through 1 a.m. Sunday
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be well into the 70s with 80-degree readings possible in the southwest.

wknd highs 8a
Forecast highs Saturday and Sunday
National Weather Service

A significant system moves in for early next week bringing scattered showers and even thunderstorms late Monday into midweek. Another system will bring colder air and the potential for snow showers later in the week, especially for northern Minnesota.

mon-fri prec
Forecast precipitation 1 a.m. Monday through 1 a.m. Friday
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, via Pivotal Weather

There could be a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rainfall for many.

QPF 120
Forecast total potential precipitation into next week
NOAA, via Pivotal Weather

We could also see some of the first strong thunderstorms of the season. As of now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Storm Prediction Center has part of southeastern Minnesota in an early risk of strong storms for Tuesday.

day 5 severe
Forecast potential severe weather risk for Tuesday
NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Temperatures will cool late next week also.

Lilacs likely to bloom early?

It will come as no surprise that lilacs are likely to bloom early this year. Almost every indicator of spring, from lake ice outs to frost free soils is coming at least 10 days early to as much as a month early.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office and the state Department of Natural Resources keeps track of phenology data, including the date of the first lilac blooms in the Twin Cities.

I plotted a decade and a half of data and the corresponding average temperature for March and April. There’s a strong correlation between March and April average temperature and the date of the first lilac blooms:

lilac bloom date
March-April average temperature versus lilac bloom date for Maplewood, Minn.
Sven Sundgaard, Minnesota DNR phenology data

Plugging in March and April average temperature so far this year along with forecast average temps for the rest of the month, I come up with a temperature anomaly (departure from normal) of about 4.3 degrees.

This would correspond to a date of April 29 this year, which is 11 days earlier than the average of May 10. All of the data this year points to an early season for gardeners and farmers.