Thursday snow for much of Minnesota; second storm possible starting Sunday
Wide variation in forecast models for snowfall totals.
The weather maps are finally active with winter weather systems, just as we move into astronomical spring.
Two separate storm systems are heading for the Upper Midwest. The first one brings snow mainly Thursday night. The second one looks messy and could potentially bring heavier amounts of snow, or even rain, to parts of Minnesota starting Sunday.
This will be an “interesting” forecast to say the least. Forecast models are all over the place with both systems. Let’s break down the two systems as forecast models are dealing with them as of this Tuesday afternoon.
System #1: Thursday night (medium-confidence)
The first storm system is a Clipper-type system. It will push light snow into western Minnesota by midday Thursday. Snow will expand eastward into the greater Twin Cities and eastern Minnesota Thursday night. The core of the heaviest snowfall looks likely to fall in the hours after midnight, and snow will likely end by early Friday morning.
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Here’s NOAA’s GFS version of snowfall coverage between noon Thursday and 6 a.m. Friday:
Forecast models Tuesday have shifted the overall storm track northward. That has shifted the likely heaviest snow bands from south of the Twin Cities to the north.
Most forecast models like the European suggest a band of generally 1 to 3 inches of snow along and either side of the I-94 corridor between Fargo and the Twin Cities.
It should be noted that the GFS model is cranking out heavier snowfall that could reach 6 inches or more in some locations. But right now it is the outlier on the higher end of forecast model solutions.
I still think we may see track changes and thus snowfall location and magnitude adjustments before the snow flies sometime Thursday. The forecast at this point 48 hours out is only at medium confidence given the wide range in forecast model tracks and snowfall output.
System #2: Sunday-Tuesday (low confidence)
The second system looks potentially wetter and very complicated. It’s more of a Colorado low that looks like it will have a deep and sustained tap to a rich Gulf of Mexico moisture source. That means it could be a wetter system overall.
The eventual storm track and temperature profile are in question at this early stage. There are forecast model solutions that give part of Minnesota all snow with this system. There are forecast solutions that start with snow Sunday and then change precipitation to rain for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota.
This looks like a wet sloppy system for sure, and droughty Minnesota and Iowa can use the moisture in any form it arrives in.
NOAA’s GFS model favors the notion of snow Sunday changing to rain by Monday for much of southern and eastern Minnesota. Then a return to another shot of snow as the system pulls eastward.
So, you can see why this system is almost impossible to project with significant confidence at this point. It looks likely we’ll see significant moisture. It’s highly uncertain how much will eventually fall as snow and or rain.
There are a few forecast models that crank out apocalyptic snowfall totals with this system. I’m not buying in on that just yet so I won’t post those solutions today. But I’ll watch to see if the trend favors all snow with this system in some locations. I have a feeling we’ll see significant forecast model changes in the coming days.
Stay tuned.