Warm Sunday, warmer on Monday; snow returns Tuesday afternoon/evening

This doesn’t feel like winter.

The average Twin Cities high temperature is 32 degrees on Feb. 25. Metro area highs will be around 50 Sunday afternoon, with a few spots topping 50. Highs in the 50s are expected Sunday in southern Minnesota, with mainly 40s in central Minnesota and 30s in much of the northern third of Minnesota.

Temperature trends

Monday highs reach the 60s across much of the southern half of Minnesota, with mainly 50s to the north:

Tuesday highs will range from teens in far northwestern Minnesota to 50s in the far southeast:

The cold air in northwestern Minnesota will spread southeastward late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the mid 20s on Wednesday, then around 40 degrees Thursday followed by lower 50s Friday.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected next weekend and through the first week of March. Here’s the March 3 through March 9 temperature outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center:

Precipitation chances

A brief sprinkle is possible anywhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin later Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening.

A low pressure system in southern Canada could spin snow showers over parts of far northern Minnesota late Sunday night and early Monday morning.

Tuesday/Tuesday night snow

Snow is expected to move into northwestern Minnesota Tuesday morning, then spread across northern, central and western Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Snow could arrive in the Twin Cities metro area, southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin early Tuesday evening.

The Twin Cities metro area could see scattered rain showers Tuesday afternoon, before the cold air and the snow arrive very late in the afternoon or Tuesday evening. The snow could linger into late Tuesday night across portions of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 3 a.m. Tuesday to 6 a.m. Wednesday:

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin could see between 1 and 3 inches of snow by late Tuesday night. Here’s the preliminary NWS snow forecast for the Tuesday/Tuesday night snow event:

Check forecast updates, since the snow, falling temperatures and strong winds could impact travel.

Ice safety

Be careful about ice safety. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has plenty of information on ice safety, including these guidelines:

According to the DNR:

Many factors other than thickness affect ice strength, including air temperature, wind, snow, streams, narrow areas or bottlenecks, sun, shade, fish communities, plant decay, and more. When a layer of snow melts and refreezes on top of lake ice, it creates white ice, only about half as strong as new, clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

Addition information on lake ice can be found here.

Weather nugget

One year ago today, the Twin Cities snow depth (measured at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport) was 12 inches.  A big snowstorm had hit much of central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin from Feb. 21 through Feb. 23 of 2023.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.