Warm Thursday, occasional rain; evening snow in northern Minnesota

Thursday will feel more like April than early February.

Thursday high temperatures are expected to reach the 50s across east-central and southeastern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin; 40s are expected elsewhere in Minnesota.

Parts of the Twin Cities metro area could reach the mid-50s Thursday afternoon. The current Twin Cities Feb. 8 record high is 50 degrees. The average Twin Cities high temp is 26 degrees on Feb. 8.

The Twin Cities high temp was 50 degrees or warmer on four of the first seven days this month.

Rain at times, then snow north

Periods of rain are expected Thursday in Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The rain is expected to mix with snow in northwestern Minnesota late Thursday afternoon and then change over to all snow Thursday evening into the overnight hours.

The transition to a rain-snow mix and then snow spreads eastward across northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin Thursday night.

Here’s a look at the timing of that changeover from rain to snow:

Thursday rain in central Minnesota could become a rain-snow mix late Thursday evening and then some patchy light snow overnight Thursday night and Friday.

The Twin Cities metro area will probably see periods of rain Thursday and Thursday evening, followed by a chance of a rain-snow mix late Thursday night and a flurry chance on Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 5 p.m. Thursday to 5 p.m. Friday:

NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model shows a similar precipitation pattern:

Light snow showers could linger into Saturday morning in northeastern Minnesota.

Snow amounts late Thursday into early Saturday could reach 1 to 2 inches in portions of northern Minnesota, with a few higher totals:

Gusty winds could reduce visibility at times in northwestern Minnesota:

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 404 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2024 MNZ001>009-013>017-022-023-027-029-NDZ008-016-024-026>030-038-039- 049-052-053-081800- West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods- West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-West Becker-Wilkin-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Eddy- Nelson-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom- Sargent-Richland- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Hadler, Faith, Flaming, Syre, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Casperson, Fox, Hayes Lake State Park, Malung, Pencer, Roseau, Salol, Baudette, Radium, Warren, Englund, Florian, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Espelie, Gatzke, Grygla, Rosewood, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Dakota Junction, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Lavinia, Rosby, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun, Alida, Ebro, Lake Itasca, Long Lost Lake, Lower Rice Lake, Roy Lake, Upper Rice Lake, Detroit Lakes, Shoreham, Breckenridge, Lawndale, Akra, Backoo, Cavalier, Leroy, Walhalla, Bowesmont, Drayton, Grafton, Nash, Oakwood, Park River, New Rockford, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Kelso, Hatton, Portland, Roseville, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, McLeod, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton 404 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2024 ...WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... Rain transitions to a brief wintry mix then all snow late this afternoon and evening from the Red River Valley into northwest Minnesota. As this occurs northwest winds 25 to 35 mph could combine with snowfall to reduce visibilities in the Red River Valley. The probability for significant reductions in visibility is 30 percent at this time. Between this afternoon and Friday afternoon there is an 80% chance for 1 inch or more snowfall across the northern Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota along and north of Highway 2, and a 50 percent chance for 2 inches or greater snow totals for those same locations. There is less than a 20 percent chance for 2 inches or more snowfall across the southern Red River Valley. There is also a 10% or less chance, for a glaze of ice, with the brief mix as the rain transitions to snow in the Red River Valley. Even light snow or ice accumulations could lead to slick travel, in addition to the potential for reduced visibilities, during the evening commute. There is still uncertainty in the greatest impacts, but travelers should prepare for winter travel conditions and a 30% chance for more significant travel disruptions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts and road conditions today.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Updated forecast information will be posted by the National Weather Service offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Wis., Sioux Falls, S.D. and Grand Forks, N.D.

Gusty winds

Winds will be gusty Thursday afternoon. A wind advisory covers portions of far southern Minnesota Thursday afternoon:

Here are advisory details for southeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service La Crosse WI 135 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2024 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ086>088-094>096-090000- /O.NEW.KARX.WI.Y.0001.240208T1500Z-240209T0000Z/ Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette- Clayton-Dodge-Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston- Including the cities of New Hampton, Decorah, Charles City, Austin, Waukon, Caledonia, Rochester, Cresco, Dodge Center, Winona, Elkader, Oelwein, Osage, and Preston 135 AM CST Thu Feb 8 2024 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

The advisory in south-central Minnesota runs until 3 p.m. Thursday.

Severe weather outlook

The NWS Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal risk of severe weather in southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois Thursday afternoon and Thursday night:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

Temperature trends

Friday high temps will be in the 30s in many areas, with 20s in northwestern and north-central Minnesota:

Saturday highs will be in the 20s in northern Minnesota, with mainly 30s elsewhere:

Sunday highs will also be in the 20s to the north, with 30s elsewhere in Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Looking ahead, Twin Cities metro area high are projected to be in the 30s Monday through Wednesday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.