Marchlike warmth Thursday through Sunday; snow drought update

Our first day of February will feel like the third week of March. Unusually warm temperatures will linger through the weekend. Our snow drought continues.

Fog lifting

Light winds Wednesday night allowed areas of dense fog to form in portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Visibility has improved in most areas, but dense fog advisories continue until 11 a.m. Thursday in southeastern Minnesota and portions of southwestern Minnesota:

There could be some pockets of dense fog in far south-central Minnesota until late Thursday morning.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Warm temps linger

Wednesday’s high temp of 55 degrees at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 9 degrees warmer than the previous Jan. 31 record high in the Twin Cities.

Other daily record highs set yesterday included 55 degrees in St. Cloud, 53 in Brainerd and International Falls and 52 in Rochester. In Wisconsin, Eau Claire had a record high of 52 and La Crosse set a new record with 53.

The warmest Minnesota temp that I saw Wednesday was 61 degrees in Canby in Yellow Medicine County. That was a new Minnesota record high for Jan. 31.    

Thursday temperatures won’t be as warm as yesterday’s temps, but they will be much warmer than normal.

The average Twin Cities high temp is 24 degrees on Feb. 1. Metro area highs are expected to reach the upper 40s Thursday afternoon. Upper 40s are typical Twin Cities high temps in the third week of March.

Thursday highs will be in the 40s across most of southern and central Minnesota as well as western Wisconsin. The northern third of Minnesota will see mainly 30s.

Friday highs will be in the 30s north with lower 40s in the south:

Saturday highs reach the 40s in most areas:

Sunday high temps will also be in the 40s:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 40s next Monday through Wednesday. One forecast model shows metro area highs around 50 degrees on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Metro area high temps are expected to retreat a bit later next week.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center shows a strong tendency for a warmer than normal February:

That doesn’t mean that there won’t be some cool days, but the average temp for the entire month is likely to be warmer than normal.

January was 5.9 degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities. It was the ninth consecutive warmer-than-normal month in the Twin Cities.

Mainly dry through the weekend

Organized precipitation isn’t expected in Minnesota or western Wisconsin over the next few days.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Thursday through Sunday:

There could be patchy drizzle in some areas that see morning fog.

Snow drought continues

Just 2 inches of snow were tallied at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in January. The average Twin Cities snowfall total for January is 11 inches. The Twin Cities 2023-24 season snowfall total is 22.7 inches below normal.

St. Cloud’s season snowfall total is 16.9 inches below normal, with Duluth a whopping 35.3 inches below normal. International Falls is 23 inches below normal and Rochester’s season snowfall total is 19.6 inches below normal.

Ice safety

Be careful about ice safety. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources has plenty of information on ice safety, including these guidelines:

According to the DNR:

Many factors other than thickness affect ice strength, including air temperature, wind, snow, streams, narrow areas or bottlenecks, sun, shade, fish communities, plant decay, and more. When a layer of snow melts and refreezes on top of lake ice, it creates white ice, only about half as strong as new, clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

Addition information on lake ice can be found here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.