Christmas rain for eastern Minnesota, with a wintry mix in the west

It was historically warm on Sunday. The high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 55 degrees, which shattered the previous Twin Cities Dec. 24 record high of 46 degrees. The average Twin Cities high temp is just 26 degrees on Dec. 24.

St. Cloud Minn. and Eau Claire, Wis. set new Dec. 24 record highs of 51 degrees on Sunday.

Temperature trends

Christmas Day highs could reach 50 degrees or warmer from the Twin Cities metro area into southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Much of northern and western Minnesota will have highs in the 30s:

Tuesday highs will be in the 30s in many areas, with some lower 40s in St. Cloud and the Twin Cities:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the upper 30s Wednesday, followed by mid 30s Thursday and Friday.

A Christmas wintry mix in some areas

Much of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see periods of rain Sunday evening through parts of Christmas Day. Patchy light freezing rain is also possible Monday morning in northeastern Minnesota.

Portions of western Minnesota will see a wintry mix Sunday evening into Christmas Day, North-central and northeastern Minnesota could see a transition to a wintry mix Monday afternoon.

Precipitation will continue into Monday evening in many areas. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 3 a.m. Monday through 11 p.m. Monday:

NOAA’s High Resolution Rapid-Refresh model shows a similar pattern, with a stronger northward push during that time period:

Precipitation is also possible in some areas that look precipitation-free in the forecast models.

Advisories

Winter weather advisories have been posted for much of western Minnesota Sunday night into Monday, due to the wintry mix that is expected:

Here are details of the advisory in west-central Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 223 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091-250430- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0022.231225T0600Z-231225T2100Z/ Douglas-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi- Yellow Medicine-Renville-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-Martin- Including the cities of Alexandria, Morris, Glenwood, Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Granite Falls, Olivia, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St James, and Fairmont 223 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations around a tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be wary of hazardous conditions during holiday travel. * PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

Some spots in west-central and southwestern Minnesota will see an inch or two of snow, but icing is the main concern.

A winter storm watch covers parts of northwestern Minnesota:

Here are details of the watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 244 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 MNZ001>003-013>015-029-NDZ026>030-038-039-049-052-053-270000- /O.NEW.KFGF.WS.A.0010.231225T1800Z-231227T0000Z/ West Polk-Norman-Clay-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Wilkin-Nelson- Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent- Richland- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada, Hadler, Faith, Flaming, Syre, Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Dakota Junction, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Breckenridge, Lawndale, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro, Kelso, Hatton, Portland, Roseville, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, McLeod, Gwinner, Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton 244 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to 3 inches followed by ice accumulations up to half an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and northeast and southeast North Dakota. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There remains uncertainty with how much ice will accumulate, and where the greatest impacts will occur. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

A winter weather advisory begins Monday evening in far northwestern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 244 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 MNZ004>009-NDZ008-014>016-024-054-270000- /O.NEW.KFGF.WW.Y.0033.231226T0000Z-231227T0000Z/ Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall- North Beltrami-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy- Western Walsh- Including the cities of Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Casperson, Fox, Hayes Lake State Park, Malung, Pencer, Roseau, Salol, Baudette, Radium, Warren, Englund, Florian, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Espelie, Gatzke, Grygla, Rosewood, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Akra, Backoo, Cavalier, Leroy, Walhalla, Bowesmont, Drayton, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Nash, Oakwood, Park River, New Rockford, Adams, Lankin, and Fairdale 244 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. * WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 6 PM CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions for North Dakota can be found at travel.dot.nd.gov and for Minnesota at 511mn.org, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.

Winter weather advisories begin Monday afternoon in north-central and northeastern Minnesota:

Here are advisory details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Duluth MN 239 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 MNZ010>012-018-019-021-025-026-250845- /O.NEW.KDLH.WW.Y.0042.231225T1800Z-231226T1800Z/ Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook and Lake-North Itasca- Central St. Louis-Southern Cook-North Cass-South Itasca- Including the cities of International Falls, Ely, Isabella, Bigfork, Hibbing, Grand Marais, Walker, and Grand Rapids 239 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed rain, freezing rain, and snow expected. Total snow accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Koochiching, North St. Louis, Northern Cook and Lake, North Itasca, Central St. Louis, Southern Cook, North Cass and South Itasca Counties. This includes the Tribal Lands of the Grand Portage Reservation and the Bois Forte Band, Nett Lake, Deer Creek and, Lake Vermilion areas. * WHEN...From noon Monday to noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The best potential for icing will be Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning, which may impact evening and morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

You can hear updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the MPR News network. 

Updated forecast info will be posted by the NWS offices in the Twin Cities, Duluth, La Crosse, Sioux Falls and Grand Forks.

Blizzard warnings in South Dakota and Nebraska

Parts of South Dakota and Nebraska will see heavy snow and strong winds Monday into Tuesday. Blizzard warnings have been posted for large portions of both states:

Weather nugget

The Twin Cities record high temp for Dec. 25 is 51 degrees, set in 1922.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.