Driest Memorial Day weekend in 16 years?

Timing is everything in life and weather.

Memorial Day weekend in Minnesota typically features one or more rainy days. Historically, this is one of the wettest times of year here. Our average rain chance on any given day this time of year is about 38 percent.

So it’s weather news when the Memorial Day weekend forecast looks sunny and totally dry.

The Twin Cities National Weather Service office points out that if we record a dry holiday weekend, it would be just the third time in the past 23 years.

First, a back-door cold front

Before the weekend warmup, Minnesota will feel the impacts of what we call a back-door cold front. High pressure building south from Canada across the Great Lakes will shift winds into the northeast and east Wednesday.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front Tuesday night across northern Minnesota, but the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota will likely stay dry.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model loop below shows the trend between 7 p.m. Tuesday and 7 p.m. Thursday.

Highs Wednesday will hover in the 40s to 50s near still-frigid Lake Superior, with 70 degrees around the Twin Cities and 80s pushed back into southwestern Minnesota.

Temperatures will gradually warm as we move toward the upcoming holiday weekend. Highs will warm back into the 70s Thursday and Friday.

Highs in the 80s look likely again across most of Minnesota this holiday weekend.

Next week looks even warmer. Many forecast models are cranking out highs well into the 80s. We could see 90 degrees again in southern Minnesota next week.

Forecast models and NOAA’s outlooks strongly favor warmer-than-average air through the first week of June.

It looks like summery weather may be here to stay for a while.

Stay tuned.