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Mild Wednesday before the next winter storm moves in Thursday

Highs will be in the 40s and 30s Wednesday

thu storm setup
The next spring/winter storm system moves into the central U.S. Thursday
National Weather Service

Temperatures will be warmer Wednesday ahead of our next winter storm. Rain and snow will develop for northern Minnesota Wednesday night and southern Minnesota early Thursday into Friday. A winter storm watch goes into effect Thursday.

Mild Wednesday with increasing clouds

Look for a mild day Wednesday. Morning temperatures were already much warmer than just 24 hours ago. Parts of northeast Minnesota which were subzero early Tuesday were more than 30 degrees warmer early Wednesday.

24 hr T
24 hour change in temperature from 7 a.m. Tuesday to 7 a.m. Wednesday
NOAA via pivotal weather

Highs will be in the 40s for much of eastern and southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon. Cloud cover will increase and thicken up ahead of the next round of moisture through the day.

wed high 9
Forecast high temperatures Wednesday
National Weather Service

If the Twin Cities can surpass 45 degrees, it’ll be the warmest day in 109 days when it was last above that point on November 27th.

How well can the snow accumulate Thursday?

A winter storm watch is posted for a swath of Minnesota, going into effect midday Thursday into early Friday.

watch
Winter storm watch goes into effect midday Thursday until early Friday
NOAA via pivotal weather

The first round of rain and snow will move across northern Minnesota Wednesday night ahead of the main storm system. This will be followed by a surge of rain and snow coming in from the southwest early Thursday, moving northeast into early Friday.

prec thu
Forecast precipitation Wednesday night through early Friday
NOAA via pivotal weather

The first round of snowfall will bring a coating to as much as 2 or 3 inches in northern Minnesota into early Thursday.

wed nt snow 9
Forecast snowfall Wednesday night into early Thursday
NOAA via pivotal weather

The complication for snowfall in southern Minnesota will be warm temperatures and precipitation starting as rain, turning to snow Thursday afternoon. You can see temperatures remain above freezing up until the late afternoon or even evening hours Thursday.

temps THU
Forecast temperatures 7 a.m. through 7 p.m. Thursday
College of DuPage Weather

As we’ve seen in the previous couple snowfalls, this makes it difficult for even heavy snow to accumulate at rates it would in colder, midwinter scenarios. Aside from that, some models aren’t putting out a lot of snowfall while a couple are.

models THU
Four computer model outputs for Thursday-Friday snow: keep in mind the models cannot account for melting and compaction.
NOAA via pivotal weather

Keep in mind the models can’t really account for compacting and melting of snow as it falls also. I think most of the Twin Cities will see 2 to 4 inches with 5 inches on the high end. Northeast Minnesota stands to see the most where Duluth and the North Shore will likely see 6 to 12 inches.

The official forecast from the National Weather Service calls for higher totals.

totals
Forecast snowfall storm totals through Friday from the National Weather Service
National Weather Service

We’ll see chilly air behind the system with temperatures only in the 20s Friday and Saturday for highs.

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