Winter storm warning Tuesday afternoon through Thursday; Over a foot of snow

Updated: 6:20 p.m.

I’ll get to the big winter storm in a moment, but I first want to mention the significant snow that’s falling today in northeastern Minnesota.

Winter weather advisories cover much of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin until 9 p.m. Monday, with winter storm warnings for higher snow amounts along the North Shore of Lake Superior:

The big storm late Tuesday into Thursday

A low pressure system will bring several inches of snow to portions of central and southern Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin Tuesday afternoon/evening and overnight Tuesday night.

There will be a lull in the snow for a few hours Wednesday morning before the main wave of snow moves in later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with significant snow continuing in most areas through much of Thursday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from 10 a.m. Tuesday through 6 p.m. Wednesday:

That heavier snow will continue through much of Thursday. The winds will ramp up Wednesday into Thursday and some locations could have whiteout conditions at times.

Storm totals

Snow storm totals from Tuesday through Thursday are likely to be 12 inches or more over much of the southern half of Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin:

Many locations will see 16 inches or more of snow over that time period.

Here’s the NWS forecast of snow amounts Tuesday through Thursday:

Wind gusts will be over 40 mph at times on Wednesday and Thursday:

Visibilities will be severely reduced at times, especially in open areas.

Warnings and advisories

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday for the Twin Cities metro area and a large portion of Minnesota:

The winter storm warning begins at 3 p.m. Tuesday in the Twin Cities:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .A major winter storm will bring significant travel impacts across the region. Most locations can expect to see at least a foot of snow by the time it ends Thursday night. The worst conditions will be Wednesday evening through Thursday, as heavy snow combines with northeast wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with some areas in western Minnesota seeing gusts near 50 mph. This will lead to significant drifting snow, and whiteout conditions in open areas. A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for portions of central and southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin where impacts will be lesser with the initial snow band Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Additional accumulating snow will arrive with the main storm Wednesday afternoon that will require an upgrade of this Winter Storm Watch. A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for portions of western and southern Minnesota and most of the Twin Cities Metro. Forecast confidence is high that 4 to 7 inches of snow will fall Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM with the initial round of snow. The snow will lighten up Wednesday morning, but then widespread heavy snow will develop later on Wednesday afternoon as the main storm arrives. This main storm is expected to bring near an additional foot of snow to most locations, with higher amounts possible across south-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Areas in western and southern Minnesota may see blizzard conditions as well. MNZ059-060-062-063-068>070-076>078-084-085-210915- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230222T0000Z-230224T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T2100Z-230224T0000Z/ Wright-Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur- Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele- Including the cities of Monticello, Minneapolis, St Paul, Stillwater, Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Waseca, and Owatonna 209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 18 to 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and southeast Minnesota. * WHEN...From 3 PM Tuesday to 6 PM CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

The winter storm warning begins at noon Tuesday in west-central Minnesota:

MNZ054>058-064-065-073-074-082-210915- /O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0003.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0004.230221T1800Z-230223T1800Z/ Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine- Renville-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan- Including the cities of Madison, Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, Granite Falls, Olivia, Redwood Falls, New Ulm, and St James 209 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 16 to 22 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Minnesota. * WHEN...From noon Tuesday to noon CST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The cold wind chills as low as 20 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Road conditions can also be found at 511mn.org for Minnesota or 511wi.gov for Wisconsin.

A winter storm watch begins Tuesday across central Minnesota and portions of far southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin.

Parts of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin are in a winter storm watch that begins Tuesday night:

Here are some storm preparation tips from the National Weather Service:

You can find updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on the Minnesota Public Radio News network, and on the MPR News live weather blog.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:39 p.m. Saturday and Sunday.