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Hardly a day passes without a new glossy political piece landing in mailboxes of Woodbury voters, usually carrying warnings in caps-lock type and searing images to match.

“Inflation and taxes are skyrocketing. Politician Ethan Cha will make things worse,” says one from the Republican Party of Minnesota.

“Kelly Fenton’s extreme agenda will take us in the wrong direction,” counters another from the Minnesota DFL.

The districts pivotal in determining control of the Minnesota Legislature are getting clearer by the week. While this November’s election will fill 201 seats, only a small fraction of them are actually competitive. 

The in-play House and Senate districts are where floods of literature come in the mail, where hard-edged legislative TV ads air during cable sports games or housing fix-up shows and where armies of doorknockers have descended.

The spending is disproportionately focused on a couple of dozen districts that neither party has a true lock on.

Republicans should do quite well in most parts of greater Minnesota; DFLers are primed to run the table in Minneapolis, St. Paul and some close-in suburbs. Regional centers and those second-ring suburbs are where the real action is.

House District 47B in Woodbury is one of them.

The seat changed during redistricting and is open, meaning the current representative isn’t seeking a new term. 

First-time candidate Ethan Cha is the DFL nominee and former Rep. Kelly Fenton is the Republican candidate. 

It’s one of a few races where a former legislator is looking to return to St. Paul. DFLers Brad Tabke of Shakopee and Jeff Brand of St. Peters are the others seeking political redemption following narrow 2020 losses; they’re in rematches with the Republicans who beat them, Erik Mortensen and Susan Akland respectively.

Fenton served four years until the 2018 election ended in defeat.

She knows how midterm elections — where the presidency isn’t on the line — can shake up the landscape and deliver a gut punch to the party in the White House. 

“I did get swept out in the Trump midterm,” Fenton said. “I think we’re going to see something similar in the Biden midterm as well.”

Democrats have a narrow House majority with 70 seats. It takes 68 to control the House. Republicans are bullish on their chances of taking the majority. 

A win by Fenton would swing a seat that DFLers hold now. That helps explain why DFL U.S. Sen. Tina Smith and DFL House Speaker Melissa Hortman have been among those to come to town to campaign for Cha. 

“We need to get Ethan Cha elected. We need to hold the majority,” Hortman told a few dozen volunteers in a pep talk before they fanned out around town one recent evening.

In an interview, she reinforced the stakes.

“I suspect it will be a hard-fought race. This district is a little hard to read on the new map. On the new map, it's a very strong Biden district,” Hortman said. “But we have a new candidate on our side, a person of color versus a candidate on the other side, who's experienced and has a lot of institutional resources behind her.”

The atmosphere is loose, with most in the room including Hortman slapping on fake mustaches to match the distinctive handlebar mustache of Cha. 

The organizer and former rancher is facing a barrage of negative ads associating him with prior DFL efforts to raise gas taxes and increase salaries for legislators. Crime is a big focus, too.

“I've never taken a vote. I am a new candidate. I am not responsible for whatever they're saying I am,” Cha said.

If there’s an upside to the mail attacks, he said, it’s that more people have gotten to know who he is and recognize him given the broad smile and mustache that even adorn the negative pieces.

He grew up in Minnesota but spent many years in California, he says, caring for elderly parents. He said he moved back in 2021 and got involved in local DFL politics.

Addressing the gathering, Cha shares his life story, beginning with his birth in a Thai refugee camp and learning English as a young child in the St. Paul public schools.

“To be here today, as a candidate running for the state House of Representatives, that's the American dream, to give back and to serve,” he said.

He tells the gathering he’d concentrate on education, climate change and defending abortion access if elected.

On this evening, Cha works his way through a cul-de-sac of townhomes. He introduces himself and seeks the votes of people like retiree Pat Schulke. She tells him reproductive rights are her top issue.

“You know I was a Republican all my life?” Schulke tells Cha.

“Until Trump came,” she says. “I’m voting whatever I like. And I do like the Democrats this year.”

A few days later, Fenton bundles up as she heads out on a frigid afternoon. She’s making her second pass in the district since beginning her door knocking in May. 

That first round was aimed at getting reacquainted and introducing herself to people new to the area. Several former farm fields have been converted into subdivisions since the time she left the Capitol.

At some doors now, it’s still an introduction. At others, it’s a chance to remind likely supporters to vote. 

“Election Day is Nov. 8,” she says at the end of each conversation, leaving nothing to chance.

The candidates and their campaign aides all carry sophisticated technology that steers them to voters most likely to be in their column or deemed persuadable. They have real-time data on who has voted early, so they can move past those homes. Time is a valuable commodity in these final weeks.

Fenton’s message is centered on attacking crime, which in this area she says has manifested itself as catalytic converter thefts and burglaries. The economy, inflation and taxes are also key  themes.

Democratic ads go hard at Fenton over past votes to restrict abortion. She points to a 1990s state court decision upholding abortion as legal in Minnesota. Fenton says it’s not the dominant issue in the race from her vantage point.

“I hear both sides of it when I've heard it,” she said. “But I have not heard it at the doors very much.”

At Rudy Cariaga’s house, two U.S. flags flap in the wind. Fenton asks what issues concern him most.

“Crime and inflation. Crime and inflation,” he repeats. 

Fenton presses him to rank the two. “Crime,” he answers. “Inflation doesn't mean anything if you can't be protected,”

Before she leaves the Cariagas, Fenton makes one more pitch.

“Should you need to vote early for any reason you can go to Central Park lower level,” she says.

“We’re against early voting,” he replies.

Much of her current focus is on nudging leaners or reminding likely supporters to follow through, even if it means returning to a house with a bright pink Fenton sign in the yard.

“It's all about turnout, and I want to make sure that they make sure to get to the voting booths come Nov. 8,” Fenton said, adding, “You just have got to keep pounding the pavement. So come Nov. 9, no matter what happens, you have no regrets.”

Brian Bakst

Author

Although all 201 seats in the Minnesota Legislature are on the ballot this year, only some are truly competitive. And many of those are in second-ring suburbs and outlying regional centers. 

Campaign for control of Legislature plays out in suburbs

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