Extreme drought expanding rapidly in Minnesota, but some relief may be near

Drought conditions are worsening across Minnesota. Fortunately, the weather pattern is turning wetter.

‘Extreme’ drought grows in Minnesota

The newest drought monitor came out Thursday morning, with data collected through Tuesday morning.

Other than some predominantly light rain last Wednesday, Minnesota saw almost no precipitation in the past data week as drought conditions worsened significantly. 

The percentage of Minnesota in moderate or greater drought remained about the same at 97 percent. However, the portion of the state in the elevated category of “extreme” drought made a huge jump from 22 percent last week to 35 percent currently.

Last week’s map is inset right for comparison.

This includes a large expansion of extreme drought in northeastern Minnesota, and even into the northern edge of Hennepin County.

The one area of improvement is the very edge of southeastern Minnesota, which now has an area in no dry or drought conditions. Although that area is less than 1 percent of the state, it is the first time since early June Minnesota has had any area in “none” for drought monitor conditions.

Fortunately, a few rain chances are in the forecast through early next week that will help slow the worsening drought and may even bring some spots slight improvements in the dry conditions.

Thursday’s forecast

Rain started moving into Minnesota late Wednesday and spotty showers and storms spread across the state during the overnight.

This is ahead of an area of low pressure north of Minnesota that will sweep a cold front across the state during the day.

That will keep occasional showers and storms around during the day, although rainfall will be limited, with much of the state seeing around one-tenth of an inch or less. 

There could be a couple isolated severe storms in eastern or southern Minnesota during the afternoon or evening.

Ahead of the cold front, Minnesota is still under a southerly wind flow, making for a mild start Thursday, with most places in the 60s.

The extra cloud cover and rain Thursday keep afternoon temperatures cooler than the past couple days, with highs forecast in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Most of the showers and storms clear our by late Thursday night, and the northerly winds behind the front could draw more smoke and haze back into Minnesota.

Extended forecast

Friday turns drier again, and highs in southern Minnesota rebound into the mid-80s, while 70s linger north. Skies will be mostly sunny, other than any spots of smoke or haze pulled in behind Thursday’s cold front.

The drier weather does not last long though, and already by early Saturday another weather system brings showers and storms back into the state through Sunday. 

Although much of the activity will be lighter, there could be some heavier bands of rain, especially Saturday evening into early Sunday. 

There is also a risk for isolated severe storms across most of the state, and scattered (a “slight” risk area, in yellow) across southern Minnesota Saturday.

While the entire state has a chance to see some precipitation, it currently looks like the heaviest rain will target southeastern Minnesota. In that area, which includes the Twin Cities, there could be a widespread corridor of one-half inch or more of rain through Sunday.

Additional rain is possible Monday in to Tuesday. 

Adding up all forecast precipitation chances for the next seven days, much of Minnesota could see at least one-quarter inch of rain, and eastern Minnesota may get up to an inch of rain with some isolated higher amounts. 

This puts us closer to average for weekly rain totals, but even a week nearer average with a few higher amounts will help in terms of the drought.

Meanwhile, highs stay mostly in the 80s, and dip slightly during rainy periods.  There could be a few 90s south by Monday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:48 a.m. Monday through Friday morning.