A cool and windy Saturday; some river levels near peak this weekend
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Don't bother combing your hair before you head outside today; the brisk winds will muss it up.
Temps will be cool, but at least the sun will shine for the bulk of the day.
Temperature trends
Minnesota and western Wisconsin highs will be mainly in the 30s this Saturday afternoon, but a few spots in the Twin Cities metro area and far southern Minnesota could touch 40 degrees or so. Our average high this time of year is 49 degrees in the metro area.
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Sunday highs are expected to be in the 30s across northern Minnesota, with mainly 40s central and south. Parts of southwestern Minnesota could touch 50 degrees:
Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach around 50 on Monday, followed by lower 50s Tuesday, 50 Wednesday, mid 40s Thursday and lower 50s on Friday
Rain and snow chances
Here's a look at rain/snow chances over the next few days:
Some snow showers are expected to move into northwestern Minnesota early Sunday, then spread southeastward. They would tend to mix with rain showers then change to scattered rain showers or sprinkles by Sunday afternoon.
Southwestern Minnesota could see some rain/snow showers late Monday.
Tuesday into early Wednesday look dry for most of Minnesota, but rain showers could move into southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon and linger into Thursday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Wednesday through Thursday:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.
We'll see if the forecast models shift the precipitation as we get closer to Wednesday. As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
River level update
Many locations along our Minnesota rivers remain at major or moderate flood stage. There are numerous flood warnings in effect. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website. Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on the NWS main page; here’s how the map looked Saturday morning:
The latest flood warnings and flood outlooks for northwestern Minnesota can be found on the NWS Grand Forks, N.D. site.
The Mississippi River at St. Paul remains at major flood stage this Saturday morning. Here’s the NWS summary for that location, which was issued Friday evening:
750 PM CDT Fri Mar 29 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Mississippi River at St. Paul.
* until further notice.
* At 7:00 PM Friday the stage was 19.3 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.1 feet by
Sunday evening then begin falling.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet...Warner Road may become impassable due to
high water.
* Impact...At 17.5 feet...Harriet Island begins to become submerged.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to
experience flooding.
* Impact...At 13.3 feet...Water begins to encroach on Water St.
You can check for an updated flood statement here.
You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.
Here’s the Saturday morning hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:
The 20.1 foot level Sunday evening would be the eighth highest Mississippi River level ever recorded at the St. Paul gauge:
Here’s a Saturday morning look at the flooding at Harriet Island in St. Paul:
The pavilion on Harriet Island is surrounded by water:
Here’s how that same area looked last Saturday morning:
Parts of Raspberry Island are under water:
The Mississippi River at Hastings continues to rise. Here's the Saturday morning hydrograph for the Mississippi River at Hastings, which is at major flood stage:
The St. Croix River will continue to rise this weekend. Here’s the Saturday morning hydrograph for the St. Croix River at Stillwater:
According to the NWS, the Minnesota River has already crested from Mankato to Jordan, and it will slowly fall this weekend. The Minnesota River at New Ulm is expected to dip a bit this weekend, then rise a bit Monday and Tuesday.
_______________________________________________________________________
4 p.m. update
Here's an example of how river level forecasts can change. The Minnesota River at New Ulm is now expected to rise a couple of feet between now and Tuesday afternoon:
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
321 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota..
Minnesota River At New Ulm affecting Brown and Nicollet Counties
.Overview... Minnesota river at New Ulm flooding has been sped up
to match the current observations. Flooding continues to be from
snowmelt runoff.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive cars through flooded areas. Turn Around...Don`t Drown.
Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.
&&
MNC015-103-010220-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NULM5.3.SM.190320T0822Z.190402T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
321 PM CDT Sat Mar 30 2019
The Flood Warning continues for
The Minnesota River At New Ulm.
* until further notice.
* At 2:45 PM Saturday the stage was 806.3 feet.
* Major flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 800.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 808.4 feet by
Tuesday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 796.0 feet...Water impacts park land and boat launch
access road is closed.
* Impact...At 795.0 feet...Water begins to impact the access roads in
the floodplain.
_______________________________________________________________________
Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the NWS point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you. The NWS also posts some flooding details here.
If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river, check here.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.