Cranked-up winter storm on the move – Saturday afternoon update

The developing winter storm you have been hearing about and talking about all week has cranked up and is advancing across Minnesota.

Here are some adjustments to the forecast:

• The storm is tracking farther to the northwest than was originally forecast, back when it was first coming ashore in California early in the week

• The adjusted track is likely to result in the heaviest snowfalls, possibly in excess of a foot in places, across portions of western Minnesota

• The Twin Cities area is getting warmer temperatures just ahead of the storm, thus preventing freezing rain

• A strengthening flow of moisture into the leading edge of the storm has led me to up the top end of my forecast of snow for the Twin Cities area a bit.

Happening now

As of early Saturday afternoon, radar has been detecting a variety of rain, snow and mixed precipitation with sleet across southern Minnesota. The mixture of precipitation types is advancing northeastward.

Meanwhile, mostly snow but with some mixed precipitation continues to fall in west central and northwestern Minnesota.

Winter Storm Warnings

Winter storm warnings have been posted for much of Minnesota to begin at various times on Saturday, not until 3:00 p.m. at locations farther north, and continue into Sunday.

The rest of the afternoon

Precipitation is now advancing across the Twin Cities area. Rain, possibly mixed with some sleet, is likely at the onset. Temperatures are above freezing so freezing rain is unlikely. Precipitation will change over to snow from southwest to northeast and become heavy. Heavy, wet snow is likely from late this Saturday afternoon into the evening. Visibilities could drop to around a quarter of a mile at times due to the heavy snow and a stiff easterly breeze.

Expected snowfall totals

Areas north of the Twin Cities up to the Duluth area are likely to see around 6-9 inches of snow by Sunday morning.

Note the change for the Twin Cities: The Twin Cities metro area should should end up with somewhere around 6-10 inches of snow, depending on how much rain falls before the conversion to snow. That increases the top end amount a little. The greatest amounts are likely on the west side and a bit less on the east around Stillwater.

Greatest snowfalls are likely across western Minnesota where snow could fall at rates of an inch or so per hour well into the evening. Here is a forecast of the percent chance for at least 8 inches of total snowfall by 7 a.m. Sunday morning:

Wind will be a factor

The wind will continue to increase this afternoon and tonight. Expect some blowing and drifting due to winds gusting to 35 or 40 mph, especially in the open areas of western and southern. However, the wetness of the snow should preclude any widespread blizzard conditions like we had two weekends ago.

Rain midweek

The next weather system will bring extended good chances of rain from Tuesday into Thursday. Milder temperatures will keep most of the precipitation as rain rather than snow until the backside of the system swings through on Thursday. The warmer temperatures will melt some of our snowpack as well.

How about these long-range forecast high temperatures for Wednesday, into the upper  30's and 40's.

Happy March.