Weekend storm still coming into focus

There's plenty we can say with high confidence about this weekend's incoming storm system. There are also a few things that need better focus before we can say with any precision how much snowfall any one town will get this weekend.

So, let's dig into our next inbound storm system.

The system 

Minnesota's weekend storm is spinning just off the California coast west of San Francisco Wednesday afternoon.

The storm moves inland into the denser continental U.S. upper air network overnight into Thursday. That should give the forecast models a better read on steering currents, and temperatures, and dynamics within the storm.

MSP: Trending mostly snow? 

The forecast models today have trended colder for the Twin Cities area. That suggests mostly a snow event around the Twin Cities. The rain-snow line in the latest model runs favors southeast Minnesota.

Here's NOAA's GFS model from 6 a.m. CST Saturday to 7 a.m. CDT Sunday.

In this scenario, the heaviest burst of snow would cross southern Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening.

How much? 

If you promise to read this as a very early estimate of what could fall Saturday, I'll post it.

Deal? Great.

Most models show a general range of snowfall across central and southern Minnesota between 5 and 12 inches by late Sunday. A few models suggest heavier totals in the Dakotas.

Here's the Canadian model.

NOAA's GFS model suggests significant, but lesser snowfall totals.

The Twin Cities NWS highlights the uncertainty with the weekend system, but lays out the most probable heavy snow zone.

We're still more than 60 hours from go time. Let's see what the models do Thursday.

A shot at 40?

Temperatures do look significantly milder the next week to 10 days. Not spring, but milder. Another weather system due in next Tuesday and Wednesday looks like it has a better chance of mixing with rain.

Stay tuned.