Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Gradually milder this week; snowy rumors persist this weekend

Noticeably milder. That's the best way to describe Minnesota's gradual temperature rise later this week.

Most major forecast models continue to advertise a more Pacific flow pattern by Friday. That should help temperatures push toward, and possibly past the 30-degree mark from Friday into the weekend.

That's still below average for the first week of March. But temperatures 30 degrees warmer than last Sunday? Progress.

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NOAA via Weather Bell.

Record cold

When people ask about subzero temperatures in March, I usually say we often see one more subzero shot in the Twin Cities the first week of March. Our latest early March subzero fest set some records.

Weekend snow chances

My former WCCO-TV college Dave Moore is a Minnesota broadcast news legend. Dave used to say: "Make no big decisions in March in Minnesota."

It's true. March is more winter than spring in Minnesota. Even though temperatures moderate into the 30s, it can still snow. Hard.

The Twin Cities averages 10.3 inches of snow in March.

The weather maps continue to crank out a low-pressure system over Minnesota next weekend. There are model differences as usual on temperature profile. That could mean rain or ice instead of snow in some areas for part of the storm.

That would potentially reduce snowfall totals. But many models dump a pile of heavy, wet March snow somewhere in Minnesota Saturday into Sunday.

It's still too early for any reasonable precision on the weekend system. But I want to show a couple of model images anyway to give you the idea of possible outcomes.

Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model. This would suggest mostly snow for the Twin Cities and central Minnesota, with rain southeast.

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NOAA GFS image for midnight Saturday night via tropical tidbits.

Here's the Canadian model. It suggests deeper inflow of milder air to the north. That would produce more hours of rain across the Twin Cities instead of snow. It would be mostly snow north and west of the Twin Cities in this scenario.

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Canadian GEM model for midnight Saturday night via tropical tidbits.

Right now the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model also suggests a rain-snow mix for the Twin Cities this weekend.

Stay tuned.