Wind and snow slow commutes; colder Thursday night, Friday

Patience will be our ally on the roads Thursday.

The snow arrived just in time to snarl up traffic during our morning commute, and winds will pick up this afternoon as snow continues. Plan on a slow afternoon-evening commute. Whiteout conditions are expected in portions of western and south-central Minnesota Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

Thankfully, quiet weather is on tap for Friday, but it'll be very cold.

Storm details 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Thursday:

Projected snow totals are highest to the east:

Here are storm details, and info on the winter weather advisory that includes the Twin Cities metro area until midnight:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

837 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

...LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH

NOON...

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL

MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.The Blizzard Warning remains in effect for areas along and south

of a line from Morris, to Mankato, to Owatonna from noon today

through midnight tonight.

The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas along and

east of a line from Pepin, to Menomonie, to Rice Lake through

midnight tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of

central and southern Minnesota and portions of west central

Wisconsin through midnight tonight.

In addition to total storm totals of 3 to 5 inches across the

Winter Weather Advisory and Blizzard Warning areas, a small area

of central Minnesota will see up to 6 inches, with localized

higher amounts through early afternoon.

Total snowfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches will occur in the Winter

Storm Warning in west central Wisconsin. Winds are expected to

increase late this morning, with blizzard conditions developing

across west central into south central Minnesota by the afternoon

and lasting through the evening.

Dangerous wind chills will accompany this system, with a Wind

Chill Warning becoming effective tonight, through Friday morning

for locations along and west of a line from Redwood Falls, to

Litchfield, to Little Falls. To the east of the warning, a Wind

Chill Advisory will become effective across the rest of central

and southern Minnesota, and counties along the Minnesota border

in western Wisconsin ,for tonight through Friday morning. Wind

chill values will range from 35 below to 40 below zero in the

warning and 30 below to 35 below zero in the advisory.

MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-066>070-076>078-WIZ014-023-024-072245-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190208T0600Z/

/O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0007.190208T0600Z-190208T1800Z/

Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-

Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-

Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Polk-St. Croix-Pierce-

Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Foley,

Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis,

Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chaska,

Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, Osceola,

Hudson, River Falls, and Prescott

837 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST

TONIGHT...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow with very cold wind chills

expected. Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as

high as 35 mph. Wind chills as low as 30 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central

Minnesota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until midnight CST

tonight. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight tonight to

noon CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy

blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The

hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. The

dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed

skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery

roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will

combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can

occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and

gloves.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

Here are details of the blizzard warning in southern Minnesota that includes Mankato and Albert Lea Thursday afternoon and evening:

Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-

Freeborn-

Including the cities of New Ulm, St Peter, St James, Mankato,

Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

837 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST

TODAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT

CST TONIGHT...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Blizzard conditions and dangerously cold wind

chills expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph. Wind chills

as low as 35 below zero expected. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4

inches.

* WHERE...Nicollet, Waseca, Steele and Freeborn Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until noon CST today.

For the Blizzard Warning, from noon today to midnight CST

tonight. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight tonight to

noon CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas

of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The

dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed

skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are

expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds

and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout

conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If

you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get

stranded, stay with your vehicle.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will

combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can

occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and

gloves.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or

freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery

roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

The blizzard warning is already in effect for much of western Minnesota, here are details for the southwest:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD

319 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

MNZ071-072-080-081-097-SDZ040-056-071730-

/O.NEW.KFSD.WC.W.0002.190208T0600Z-190208T1800Z/

/O.CON.KFSD.BZ.W.0002.190207T1500Z-190208T0600Z/

/O.CON.KFSD.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-190207T1500Z/

Lincoln MN-Lyon MN-Murray-Cottonwood-Pipestone-Brookings-Moody-

319 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS

MORNING...

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO

MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST

FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Blizzard conditions and dangerously cold wind

chills expected. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch

expected. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph this afternoon into

the evening hours. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central South Dakota and southwest

Minnesota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 9 AM CST this

morning. For the Blizzard Warning, from 9 AM this morning to

midnight CST tonight. For the Wind Chill Warning, from midnight

tonight to noon CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of

blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous

conditions could impact the evening commute. Gusty winds could

bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold wind chills could

cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are

expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds

and poor visibilities are likely. This will lead to whiteout

conditions, making travel extremely dangerous. Do not travel. If

you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get

stranded, stay with your vehicle.

A Wind Chill Warning means the combination of very cold air and

the wind will create dangerously low wind chill values. Frostbite

can occur quickly and even hypothermia or death if precautions

are not taken.

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can

be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

___________________________________________________________________________

11 a.m. update:

The NWS has expanded the winter storm warning to include the Twin Cities metro area and counties bordering the metro area to the northwest:

The heaviest snow amounts will tend to be on the northwest side of the metro area.

Details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

1025 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR THROUGH NOON IN SOUTH

CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED FURTHER WEST THROUGH

MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL

MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...

...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.The Blizzard Warning remains in effect for areas along and south

of a line from Morris, to Mankato, to Owatonna from noon today

through midnight tonight.

A Winter Storm Warning has been expanded west to include areas

north and east of a line from Gaylord, to Dassel, Clearwater, St.

Cloud, Milaca, and Mora. This includes the Twin Cities metro area

through midnight tonight.

The Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas along and

east of a line from Pepin, to Menomonie, to Rice Lake through

midnight tonight.

Outside the Winter Storm Warning, a Winter Weather Advisory

remains in effect for the remainder of central and southern

Minnesota through midnight tonight.

Snowfall totals as the storm ends tonight will average between

2 and 5 inches across the Winter Weather Advisory, and Blizzard

Warning areas before it tapers off later today.

In addition, an area of increasing snowfall rates of 1 to

2 inches per hour will occur in south central, and east central

Minnesota before noon. This area of increasing snowfall rates

will move into west central Wisconsin this afternoon. Anywhere

these localized areas of 1 to 2 inches per hour snowfall rates

develop, you can expected locally higher totals before it begins

to taper off this afternoon.

Outside these localized heavier snowfall rates, total snowfall

amounts of 6 to 8 inches will occur in the Winter Storm Warning

in portions of central and east central Minnesota, as well as west

central Wisconsin. Winds are expected to increase late this

morning, with blizzard conditions developing across west central

into south central Minnesota by the afternoon and lasting through

the evening.

Dangerous wind chills will accompany this system, with a Wind

Chill Warning becoming effective tonight, through Friday morning

for locations along and west of a line from Redwood Falls, to

Litchfield, to Little Falls. To the east of the warning, a Wind

Chill Advisory will become effective across the rest of central

and southern Minnesota, and counties along the Minnesota border

in western Wisconsin ,for tonight through Friday morning. Wind

chill values will range from 35 below to 40 below zero in the

warning and 30 below to 35 below zero in the advisory.

MNZ044-045-050>053-059>063-066>070-WIZ014-023-024-080030-

/O.UPG.KMPX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-190208T0600Z/

/O.EXA.KMPX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-190208T0600Z/

/O.CON.KMPX.WC.Y.0007.190208T0600Z-190208T1800Z/

Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-

Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-

Dakota-Polk-St. Croix-Pierce-

Including the cities of Princeton, Mora, Foley, Elk River,

Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul,

Stillwater, Hutchinson, Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings,

Osceola, Hudson, River Falls, and Prescott

1025 AM CST Thu Feb 7 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO

NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Very cold wind chills expected. Additional

snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as

35 mph. Wind chills as low as 35 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and

central and east central Minnesota.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until midnight CST

tonight. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight tonight to

noon CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy

blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The

hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. The

dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed

skin in as little as 10 minutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you

must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your

vehicle in case of an emergency.

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will

combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can

occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and

gloves.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

________________________________________________________________________________

You can check snow accumulations as they are posted by the National Weather Service. Hover over a location on the NWS snow map to see the snow total and the time of observation.  Be aware that some of the snow totals include snow that fell on Wednesday.

Updated road conditions will be posted by the Minnesota and Wisconsin transportation departments.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin Cities, Grand Forks, N.D., Sioux Falls, S.D., La Crosse, Wis. and Duluth.

Wind chill advisory

As winds pick up and temperatures plummet, wind chills will become important.

Much of central and southern Minnesota will have wind chill advisories or warnings starting at midnight Thursday and running until noon Friday:

The Twin Cities metro area will be in the wind chill advisory beginning at midnight this Thursday.

Temps drop

Metro area temps will be falling Thursday afternoon.

Friday highs will be in the single digits below zero across most of Minnesota, peaking at zero or slightly above zero in the Twin Cities metro area:

Lows Saturday morning drop well below zero statewide:

Highs Saturday will be very chilly:

Sunday highs rebound a bit:

Metro area highs are expected to reach the lower 20s Monday and Tuesday.

Snow deficit

Through Wednesday, our season snowfall total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 22.3 inches. That was 13.4 inches below our average snow total to this point in our snow season:

We'll narrow that gap with Thursday's snowfall.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.