Light snow overnight; Saturday slop-storm track still uncertain

"A lot of people like snow. I find it to be an unnecessary freezing of water." - Carl Reiner

Forecasting winter weather in Minnesota is not for the faint of heart. Winter weather systems are like a box of Cracker Jack. There's usually a free surprise toy inside.

Tonight's light snow event behaved pretty much as advertised. Most of us wake up to 1 to 2-inches of snow Thursday. Snow will end in most of the Twin Cities before the morning rush hours. But I still expect some slick roads.

Temperatures moderate 

Milder air eases into Minnesota over the next few days. Temperatures will crack the thawing point in most of southern Minnesota during the afternoon hours.

Saturday system

There is still a great deal of uncertainty and forecast model spread with Saturday's inbound weather system. The primary American model (GFS) has nudged northward but continues to keep precipitation (just) south of MSP Saturday. The Canadian and European models bring a mix of heavier rain-sleet-ice-snow to most of central and southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities.

As always don't take any one model as gospel, but this Canadian model run gives you the sense of what the messy northward solution might look like Saturday.

Regardless of the precise storm track, temperatures hovering around freezing in the lowest mile of the atmosphere will likely deliver a sloppy precipitation mix Saturday.

Forecast analysis 

It's always interesting to read the local forecast discussion from NWS offices. It gives meteorologists a chance to compare notes on inbound weather systems. It's amazing how ten different meteorologists in the same room can interpret raw forecast model data in their own way.

I've always been one to do my own forecast work from the raw forecast models first, and then read NWS products to see what they are thinking. Do we agree? If not, am I missing something? If we don't agree how confident am I about my forecast? How will I communicate that to my audience? That's my process.

As of now, I am inclined to think today's forecast discussion from the Twin Cities NWS is spot on at this early stage of Saturday's system.

Here's an excerpt.

The subtle differences in exactly how far north it will lift into

Iowa will affect the possibility how far north the heaviest

snowfall will reach. The ECMWF and CMC are similar in timing and

location, bringing precipitation as far north as St. Cloud and the

system departing late Sunday. The GFS keeps most of the snowfall

to the south of the Twin Cities and is faster, having the system

exit to our east Sunday morning. All models indicate the potential

for near 1 inch of QPF and near 6-8 inches of snowfall. To

further show the high end potential for this system, CIPS analogs

indicate that this event could be similar to the December 29, 2015

Winter Storm that brought 6-8 inches of snowfall to Southern MN

and West Central WI.

I'm not ready to broadcast 6 to 8-inch snow potential for the Twin Cities just yet. Hopefully, Thursday's model runs will provide greater consensus and clarity. But then again, I'm an optimist.

Stay tuned.