Roller coaster winter ahead? Early soil frost now; mild Thanksgiving

We may be seeing a trend setting up early in this cold season.

Temperatures the past few days feel more January than November in Minnesota. Minnesota is the epicenter of an unseasonably cold air mass through tomorrow.

With temperatures running 20-degrees colder than average it's not surprising that frost is already working into soils across Minnesota. The Twin Cities NWS office in Chanhassen reports a frost depth of 4-inches today.

Pacific breeze

But the upper air pattern next week looks significantly milder. Our upper wind flow shifts from a Yukon express, to a California trajectory for a couple days this week and for most of next week.

What little snow we have on the ground in southern Minnesota should be gone by Thursday evening. And snow in northern Minnesota will take a hit over the next 10 days.

Thanksgiving week looks even milder. The most reliable forecast models crank out a string of highs in the 40s next week. A few models give the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota a shot at 50-degrees. That may be optimistic, but the trend for several days and even some nights next week well above the thawing point seems solid.

Roller coaster winter?

In this likely El Niño winter, it's quite possible or even likely that we'll see frequent shifts to a milder westerly flow pattern this winter.

That may mean periodic cold shots from the Canadian Arctic, punctuated by days of frequent mild Pacific breezes. If the pattern we're seeing set up this November verifies, temperatures may swing more then usual between frigid and relatively balmy this winter. It may be difficult to keep consistent snow cover on the ground in parts of Minnesota this winter.

Stay tuned.