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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Pattern change: Milder this week and next; mild December too?

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One more day.

That's how long our persistent and pesky northwest flow with embedded snow showers lingers. Tuesday will still be cold, but less wind and bright sun will make it feel better. Then, the first in a series of warm fronts blows in Wednesday. Highs return to the more typical 40s Wednesday and Thursday.

The early read on Thanksgiving week looks mild across the Upper Midwest. Weather fingers and toes are crossed for good travel to and fro next week.

Many smaller ponds and bays are iced-over now. Ice thickness is still way too sketchy to be safe in most spots. Above is our annual reminder about how much ice you need to proceed safely courtesy of the Minnesota DNR.

The big water like Lake Minnetonka is still wide open. Here's the shot of Excelsior Bay from Maynard's webcam.

11 12 Excelsior Bay
Image via Maynard's web cam.

Warm front

Winds shift to a milder westerly trajectory by Wednesday. It's a two-day warmup, then a cooler front returns for this upcoming weekend.

11 12 w
NOAA forecast temperatures for Minneapolis via Weather Bell.

Mild Thanksgiving week?

It's still early, but most guidance favors a milder Thanksgiving week across the Upper Midwest. The upper air pattern suggests the jet stream lifting well north into Canada. That opens the door for milder Pacific flow most of next week.

11 12 500
NOAA

A string of days well into the 40s looks likely. A shot at 50 is possible. That candy coating of snow outside today will likely be gone by Thursday, and Thanksgiving looks more brown than white.

Mild December?

The longer range outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggests the mild flow patterns may linger into December.

Here's NOAA's Climate Forecast System model output for December temperature trends across the U.S. This specific run suggest December temperatures about 2 to 4 degrees F warmer than average across Minnesota.

11 12 CFS
NOAA CFS model December temperature trends via tropical tidbits.

California firestorms through a climate perspective

How should we view the latest set of California firestorms through a climate change lens? This is a great illustration of how weather conditions have evolved over the past several decades in California during the warm season. The trends are clear.

California: Dispatches from the climate apocalypse 

Thirty-one dead and over 200 still missing. If this were a terrorist attack, America would be on full war footing. Amazing.