More inches of rain coming our way
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The complex, slow-moving storm system that began on Monday will stay with us through Thursday. High water content up through the atmosphere and vigorous uplift will lead to periods of heavy rain and possible flooding in southern and possibly central Minnesota.
An additional 2 to 3 inches of rain is likely over central Minnesota including the Twin Cities, while locations in southern Minnesota subject to training thunderstorms might get 4 or more additional inches.
Radar is tracking more storms
Early this Wednesday morning, thunderstorms with heavy rain have been tracking eastward close to the Iowa border. Meanwhile, very strong thunderstorms have been racing eastward from South Dakota into western Minnesota.
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Both areas of storms have been generating a lot of lightning:
Wednesday's forecast weather map indicates rounds of heavy rain and possible localized flash flooding in southern Minnesota north of a warm front.
A few thunderstorms might become severe later on Wednesday.
Widespread thunderstorms likely Wednesday night and Thursday
The main event for possible flooding will occur from Wednesday night into Thursday. That pesky nocturnal low level jet stream will crank up again Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity across the southern half of the state tonight and continue on Thursday.
A flash flood watch has been issued for flood-prone southeastern Minnesota from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. Some cities in the watch are Rochester, Wabasha, Winona, Austin and Lanesboro. Also watch out for possible mudslides.
Thursday should eventually see the broad area of thunderstorms track northeastward and diminish.
Then the weather will get tricky again. A cold frontal boundary is likely to set up from northwestern Wisconsin to the Twin Cities to south central Minnesota Thursday afternoon.
Strong thunderstorms will develop along and on the warm eastern side of the boundary. Some storms could easily become severe over southern and east central Minnesota or western Wisconsin late Thursday afternoon or evening. Tornadoes are possible, thanks to some atmospheric spin expected.
Cool, breezy Friday
Areas of rain might linger into Friday morning in northeastern Minnesota. Then expect a mostly cloudy, chilly day with gusty winds. High temperatures should be from the mid 50s to low 60s.
Lovely weekend
Saturday and Sunday look great after a chilly start Saturday morning. Look for lots of sunshine and pleasant temperatures as we celebrate the autumnal equinox (8:54 p.m. on Saturday, for those who appreciate precision).
The Twin Cities should warm back up to the low 70s Sunday afternoon.
Not-so-lovely Monday-Tuesday
The next weather system should arrive on Monday and spread showers and maybe thunderstorms across much of the state on Monday and Tuesday. Heavy rain is possible again. Meanwhile, areas of flooding are likely to be continuing in southern Minnesota.
Chilly for the end of September-beginning of October
Crisp Canadian air will slide into our state behind the exiting cold front next week. The 8-14 day outlook predicts the strong likelihood of below-normal temperatures for the period from September 26 through October 2 for the north central part of the country.
