Stormy Monday: ‘Enhanced’ severe weather risk late today
It looks like an active afternoon on Doppler radar and in Minnesota skies.
A cold front slices into a warm and humid air mass across southern Minnesota Monday. An upper-air wave racing east from the northern Rockies into Minnesota will trigger storms by late afternoon. The storms will likely pack heavy downpours, high winds, and hail as they rumble east.
Keep an eye and ear out for watches and warnings late Monday.
Late afternoon storms
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Storms are likely to develop Monday afternoon in southwestern Minnesota. The most favorable timing of storms along Interstate 35 from Duluth to the Twin Cities is between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model and other high-resolution models drive a line of potentially severe storms into the Twin Cities around suppertime.
Severe risk
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the risk for severe storms late this afternoon across eastern Minnesota and Wisconsin.
NOAA highlights the risk of damaging winds from a possible bow echo late Monday afternoon and evening in the discussion from the convective outlook.
Heavy rainfall potential
The storms will likely produce heavy downpours. Rainfall totals of an inch or more are likely from the Twin Cities east into Wisconsin.
Excessive rainfall potential
Locally heavier, multi-inch rainfall and flash flooding is possible as storms begin to stall in the Twin Cities and into Wisconsin.
Bottom Line: Stay situationally aware for the risk of severe weather late this afternoon and evening. Stronger storms could produce wind and hail damage. Flash flood risk is there from the Twin Cities east into Wisconsin.
Cool front
The front triggering today's storms will bring much cooler and more comfortable air into Minnesota this week. Highs in the 70s return this week. Temperatures warm again to summer-like levels as we move toward September.
Stay tuned for likely severe weather watches and warnings late Monday afternoon.