Instant summer: Spotty T-showers; temps push 80 this afternoon
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April is going out like a rambunctious spring lamb.
A warm surge of summer-like air brings warmer temperatures and scattered showers with a side of thunder today. Garden variety spring thundershowers roam Minnesota today. Most will not be severe, but a few could approach severe limits in western and central Minnesota.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center paints a marginal risk over much of western and central Minnesota Monday. The highest chance for severe storms is on southwest Minnesota where the risk is slight.
Instant summer
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Our inbound air mass is more July than last day of April. Highs push the low 80s today in areas that get enough sunshine between cloud bands. The warmth pushes all the way north to the Canadian border.
Thunderstorm waves
We'll see a few different shower and thunderstorm waves early this week. Look for a front to trigger more focused action Tuesday afternoon just southeast of Minneapolis-St. Paul. NOAA's Global Forecast System model captures the notion of a few showers waves through Tuesday.
Back to the 60s
This week's early summer-like warmth gives way to more typical highs in the 60s as the week rolls on.
Skywarn in St. Cloud
Here's your chance to get severe storm training in St. Cloud, Minn., this week.
Significant severe outbreak Tuesday?
A marginal risk for severe weather includes the Twin Cities Tuesday. But the biggest risk favors the area around Lincoln and Omaha, Neb.
Here's Tuesday's severe weather geek speak from NOAA.
...Central and northern KS, southeast NE, far southwest IA and
northwest MO...
Supercells are expected to form by late afternoon across central to
north central KS, near the dryline/front intersection, and with
additional activity developing into southeast NE along the front.
Wind profiles will favor supercells, with large hail and a few
tornadoes possible. With time, a complex of storms is expected along
the front, perhaps with embedded supercells capable of damaging
winds and hail, and a brief tornado.
...South-central KS into northwest OK...
Strong instability will develop along the dryline as dewpoints rise
into the 60s F and heating occurs. The air mass should be uncapped
after about 21Z, and wind profiles will veer with height and clearly
favor supercells. Cooler air east of the dryline, and thus
containing more CIN, will back westward after 00Z. This setup lends
uncertainty as to how many storms will occur and for how long. In
addition, midlevel subsidence is forecast especially over southern
areas. Conditionally, very large hail and even tornadoes will be
possible as SRH increases late in the day.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 10% SIG - Enhanced
Wind: 30% - Enhanced
Hail: 30% SIG - Enhanced
Stay tuned.