Plenty of weekend sunshine; river level update

Our Saturday high temps will be a bit below average, but Sunday will be a bit warmer than average.

We'll have plenty of sunshine, so I'll give a thumbs up to our weekend weather!

Temperature trends 

Minnesota highs will be mostly in the 50s this Saturday afternoon, but I expect a few spots in the Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota to touch 60 degrees. Our average high temp is 64 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Some spots along the north shore of Lake Superior will top out in the upper 40s.

It'll be breezy and warmer on Sunday, with many spots in Minnesota reaching 70 or the lower 70s:

The Twin Cities metro should reach at least 70 degrees Sunday afternoon, with a few lower 70s.

Northeastern Minnesota is expected to top out in the 60s.

Monday will be our warmest day of the coming week, with many spots in central and southern Minnesota reaching at least 80 degrees:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to retreat into the 70s on Tuesday, followed by 60s Wednesday and Thursday.

Rain and thunder opportunities

Minnesota could see some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight Sunday night and early Monday morning.

There's a good chance of some periods of showers and thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Sunday night through Tuesday:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain.

A severe thunderstorm is possible Monday night, especially in southwestern Minnesota :

We'll keep you updated.

Wildfire danger is high

According to the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, fire danger is high to very high over much of Minnesota right now:

Here are details of the DNR fire danger categories:

Wildfire rating descriptions

Low

Fires are not easily started. Fuels do not ignite readily from small firebrands, although a more intense ignition source, such as lightning, may start many fires in duff or punky wood. Fires in open cured grassland may burn freely a few hours after rain, but fires burning in forested areas spread slowly by creeping or smoldering, and burn in irregular fingers. There is little danger of spotting.

Moderate

Fires start easily and spread at a moderate rate. Fires can start from most accidental causes, but with the exception of lightning fires in some areas, the number of starts is generally low. Fires in open-cured grassland will burn briskly and spread rapidly on windy days. Woods fires spread slowly to moderately fast. The average fire is of moderate intensity, although heavy concentrations of fuel may burn hot. Short-distance spotting may occur, but is not persistent. Fires are not likely to become serious, and control is relatively easy.

High

Fires start easily and spread at a fast rate. All fine dead fuels ignite readily and fires start easily from most causes. Unattended campfires are likely to escape. Fires spread rapidly and short-distance spotting is common. High-intensity burning may develop on slopes, or in concentrations of fine fuel. Fires may become serious and difficult to control unless they are hit hard and fast while small.

Very High

Fires start very easily and spread at a very fast rate. Fires start easily from all causes, spread rapidly, and intensify quickly. Spot fires are a constant danger. Fires burning in heavy fuels may quickly develop high-intensity characteristics, such as long-distance spotting and fire whirlwinds. Direct attack at the head of such fires is rarely possible after they have been burning more than a few minutes.

Extreme

The fire situation is explosive and can result in extensive property damage. Fires under extreme conditions start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious. Development into high-intensity burning will usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the very high danger class (item 4). Direct attack is rarely possible, and may be dangerous, except immediately after ignition. Fires burning in heavy slash or in conifer stands may be unmanageable while the extreme burning condition lasts. Under these conditions, the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks until the weather changes or the fuel supply lessens.

Spring flooding update

River levels are high in many parts of Minnesota due to our rapid spring snowmelt.

Flood warnings have been issued for the green-shaded areas on the following maps, which can be found on the home pages of the National Weather Service Twin Cities office and Grand Forks office:

You can click on areas of interest on the NWS home pages for the latest river forecasts.

Here’s the most recent NWS river forecast for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

MNC037-123-163-290752-

/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0016.180429T1800Z-000000T0000Z/

/STPM5.2.ER.180429T1800Z.180501T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/

852 PM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for

The Mississippi River at St. Paul.

* from Sunday afternoon until further notice.

* At 8:00 PM Friday the stage was 12.5 feet.

* Moderate flooding is forecast.

* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Sunday afternoon and

continue to rise to near 15.3 feet by Tuesday afternoon.

* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.

* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to

experience flooding.

* Impact...At 13.3 feet...Water begins to encroach on Water St.

An updated flood warning is expected this morning.

You can also click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels.

Here’s the latest hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul, which is expected to rise about 2 -and-one-quarter additional feet between this morning and Tuesday afternoon:

The Minnesota River at Savage is at minor flood stage, and it’s expected to rise about 2-and-one-half additional feet by next Tuesday:

The Minnesota River at Jordan is at minor flood stage and it’s expected to rise about another one-half foot by Sunday, just reaching moderate flood stage:

The Red River at East Grand Forks is at minor flood stage and it’s expected to drop below flood stage Monday morning:

River levels and forecasts are updated on a regular basis, so check for updates.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.