Models: 50 degrees next week, but more snow first
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Welcome to January 95th?
This winter is like that loud uncle that hangs around way too long after the party. We love our winters in Minnesota. We just don't want them to linger into April.
It's "interesting" being the weatherman at times like this. People haven't quite stooped to hate mail yet, but the glances and twitter comments are edgy. I too am way past ready for spring and warmer weather. I feel your pain.
I can't help but feel like part of the reason so many people are grumbling about this "spring" is because we've just experienced three mild winters in a row. The reality is this winter was almost perfectly average through March. Yes, it's very cold and snowy so far in April. That happens here sometimes.
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We live in Minnesota. Land of Low Weather Expectations.
We earn our stoic reputation in years like this.
Cold lingers through the weekend
Our February in April weather pattern lingers through this weekend. Friday and Saturday look just plain cold. Temperatures begin to moderate next week. Preview of coming attractions?
Sunday snow
Before we get to the milder weather next week it appears we have one more snow event Sunday. Right now the heaviest totals seem destined to parallel the Minnesota River Valley. NOAA's GFS model brings snow into western Minnesota Sunday morning, and into the Twin Cities by lunchtime. Most other models agree on timing and storm track.
Most of southern Minnesota will likely pick up a few more inches by Monday morning. The best chance for 4"+ appears to favor southwest Minnesota. We'll tweak storm track and totals in the next 24 to 48 hours.
50 next week?
The jet stream still looks likely to shift north next week. That opens the door for a mercifully milder Pacific air flow.
Temperatures begin to moderate into the 40s next week. Both the European and American models crank out 50 or better next Thursday.
Those same models crank up a powerful low pressure system and move it into Minnesota next Friday. Right now, NOAA's GFS keeps the Twin Cities mostly on the warm (rainy) side of the system.
Obviously it's too early to say if that track is likely. Any shift north or south would have dramatic consequences. One thing for sure about Minnesota weather. It's rarely boring.
Stay tuned.