Winter storm aims west: Twin Cities near-miss
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It looks like the Twin Cities will dodge a late March snow.
The latest model trends continue to support a westward shift in the snow zone. I still think the bulk of the snow will miss the core of the Twin Cities. Several inches will fall along the Minnesota River Valley overnight into Saturday.
My latest thinking hasn't changed much this week, or from earlier today.
Winter storm warnings remain up for most of southwest Minnesota.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...HEAVY SNOW SHIFTING SOUTH ABOUT A COUNTY...
.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect across most of west
central and south central Minnesota, with a Winter Weather
Advisory in effect from Alexandria to Waconia and Faribault. This
update was to shift snow totals south about a county. Confidence
remains high that a swath of heavy snow will fall across portions
of western and southern Minnesota late tonight with a very tight
gradient on the northern fringe.
The primary band of heavy precipitation will develop this evening
across the western portion of the state. The precipitation will
initially begin as a mix of rain and snow, but will quickly
transition to all snow by late this evening.
Snowfall amounts will range from 5 to 8 inches across western and
southern Minnesota. As mentioned before, there will be a sharp
gradient in amounts on the northern fringe. Any additional shift
would lead to significant forecast changes near this gradient.
Twin Cities: Near, or complete miss?
I can't say with 100-percent certainty that most of the Twin Cities will be snow free. But if I had to bet my last dollar, that's where my money would go. I still think dry air on the system's eastern side will erode the east side of the snow zone. NOAA's GFS stubbornly keeps some snow in the Twin Cities, but it is the outlier. I like the looks of the latest NAM 3 km resolution runs much better. That keeps the snow zone west of the Twin Cities core overnight. The (far?) southwest suburbs may just get brushed.
Here's the NAM snowfall output. It;s similar to the Canadian and Euro in bringing little or no snow into the Twin Cities core inside the 494/694 ring.
50 next week?
Temperatures moderate again starting Sunday. The Twin Cities has a good shot at 50 degrees again next week.
Hang in there!