Snowstorm for western, southern Minnesota; less snow for metro area
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The morning runs of some weather forecast models show a slight southward shift of the heaviest snow Friday evening into early Saturday.
Here's the Friday morning run of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.
Any snow or rain-snow mix in the Twin Cities metro area is expected to hold off until after sunset this Friday evening.
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Little or no snow accumulation is expected for Anoka, Ramsey and Washington counties from this Minnesota winter storm.
Many locations in Hennepin county and Dakota county won't see enough snow to shovel if the new run of the NAM model is accurate. Carver and Scott counties are very close to the accumulating snow in the model, so I wouldn't bet against parts of those counties seeing enough to shovel.
The earlier version of the NAM model had the snow pattern shifted a bit north:
There's another run of the NAM model Friday afternoon, so it'll be interesting to see if there is another shift in the snow pattern.
Advisories and warnings
Here's the National Weather Service snow forecast for late Friday into Saturday:
The heaviest snow would be this evening and overnight, but parts of western Minnesota could see some heavy snow later this afternoon.
The NWS has issued winter storm warnings for heavy snow and blowing snow for much of western and southern Minnesota:
The winter storm warning begins at 1 p.m. in the Moorhead and Fergus Falls areas:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1110 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
MNZ003-029-030-040-NDZ026-029-039-053-241200-
/O.CON.KFGF.WS.W.0005.180323T1800Z-180324T1200Z/
Clay-Wilkin-West Otter Tail-Grant-Nelson-Steele-Cass-Richland-
Including the cities of Moorhead, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls,
Elbow Lake, Hoffman, Ashby, Herman, Barrett, Lakota, Mcville,
Aneta, Tolna, Finley, Hope, Fargo, and Wahpeton
1110 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow along with blowing and drifting snow. Total
snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches, with localized amounts up
to 9 inches, are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of west central Minnesota and northeast and
southeast North Dakota.
* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the evening commute. Winds gusting as high as
40 mph will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous or
impossible. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food
and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest
road conditions for the state you are calling from can be
obtained by calling 5 1 1.
The warning begins at 7 p.m. in much of west-central, southwestern and south-central Minnesota:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...
...THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN DELAYED BY 3 HOURS...
...VERY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO SET UP NEAR OR
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect across most of west
central and south central Minnesota, with a Winter Weather
Advisory in effect along I-94, including the west metro. The
change to this update was to delay the onset of precipitation by 3
hours. However, confidence remains high that a swath of heavy
snow will fall across portions of western and southern Minnesota
late tonight.
In addition, confidence remains high that a very tight gradient
is expected with this storm.
An initial band of rain and snow will develop across far western
MN during the afternoon, but the primary band of heavier precipitation
will develop early this evening across the western portion of the
state. The precipitation will initially begin as a mix of rain
and snow, but will quickly transition to all snow this evening.
Snowfall amounts will range from 5 to 8 inches across western and
southern Minnesota. As mentioned before, there will be a sharp
gradient in amounts near the Mississippi River, with possibly
little or no snow northeast of there. Any shift would lead to
significant forecast changes near this gradient, including in the
Twin Cities metro.
Please be aware that models continue to trend toward a drier
scenario across eastern Minnesota. There may be further updates on
downgrading the Winter Storm Warning to an advisory on the eastern
edge of this storm later today.
MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091-240030-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0000Z-180324T1500Z/
Douglas-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-Redwood-Brown-Watonwan-Martin-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Morris, Glenwood, Madison,
Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Granite Falls, Olivia,
Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St James, and Fairmont
1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow, and some blowing snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches, with localized amounts up to 8
inches, and ice accumulations of a light glaze are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west
central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for
Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.
From Litchfield through Mankato and down to the Iowa border, the winter storm warning starts at 10 p.m.:
MNZ058-066-067-075-076-083>085-092-093-240030-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0300Z-180324T1500Z/
Meeker-McLeod-Sibley-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-
Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Litchfield, Hutchinson, Gaylord,
St Peter, Le Sueur, Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Blue Earth,
and Albert Lea
1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM CDT SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 8
inches are expected.
* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Minnesota.
* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at
511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.
Carver and Scott counties in the southwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area have a winter storm warning from 1 a.m. Saturday to 10 a.m. Saturday:
MNZ068-069-077-240030-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180324T0600Z-180324T1500Z/
Carver-Scott-Rice-
Including the cities of Chaska, Shakopee, and Faribault
1123 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches,
with isolated 7 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Carver, Scott and Rice Counties.
* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you
must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for
Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for Wisconsin at
511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.
You can expected updated warnings and advisories later this afternoon.
Updates
Check forecast updates, especially if you will be traveling in Minnesota anytime from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can also see weather updates on the MPR news live weather blog.
The Minnesota Department of Transportation will have road condition updates.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.