Winter storm update; Twin Cities rides northern edge of heavy snow
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March is indeed a fickle month.
Some years we see highs in the 80s, and we occasionally have single digit highs in March.
We can have beautiful sunny days, some rainy days, sleet, snow and occasionally a severe thunderstorm.
Some Minnesotans will see several inches of snow from Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
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The snow potential
A rain/snow mix is expected to enter southwestern Minnesota Friday morning, then spread northeastward through the day. The mix could change to all snow in the west Friday evening, and during Friday night to the east.
The snow is expected to continue overnight Friday night and taper of Saturday morning.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Friday through Saturday morning:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow or rain.
The NAM snow totals are heaviest from west-central Minnesota into parts of southern Minnesota:
The NAM indicates some double digit amounts are possible, but snow totals are tricky when dealing with the uncertain timing of the change from rain or a mix of rain and snow to all snow.
The National Weather Service snow forecast shows how tight the gradient from heavy snow to lighter snow will be:
I wouldn't be surprised if the far northeastern part of the Twin Cities metro area only sees an inch or two of snow from the storm, while five to eight inches of snow accumulate in some parts of the far southwest metro from Friday night through early Saturday.
Any metro area snow should hold off until sometime Friday evening.
Watches and warnings
Winter storm warnings have been posted for portions of west-central and northwestern Minnesota:
The southwestern half of the Twin Cities metro area is in a winter storm watch that begins Friday evening:
MNZ049-058>060-066-068>070-076>078-085-230500-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.A.0005.180324T0000Z-180324T1500Z/
Stearns-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-McLeod-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Steele-
Including the cities of St Cloud, Litchfield, Monticello,
Minneapolis, Hutchinson, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings, Le Sueur,
Faribault, Red Wing, and Owatonna
355 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow possible. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 9 inches are possible, with the lightest
amounts along I-94.
* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, south central and
southeast Minnesota.
* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Winds gusting as high as 35 mph could cause patchy blowing and
drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.
Here are details of the winter storm warning in west-central Minnesota:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
355 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
...WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH ADDITIONAL COUNTIES LIKELY BEING ADDED THIS
EVENING...
...VERY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT STILL EXPECTED TO SET UP NEAR
SAINT CLOUD...THE TWIN CITIES...AND RED WING...
.A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect across west central
Minnesota with a watch remaining elsewhere southwest of the
Mississippi River Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
The main forecast concern remains where the sharp gradient of
snowfall totals sets up on the northeast side of this winter
storm. Little has changed in the last 24 hours with the best
potential of this setting up the Mississippi River, but enough
uncertainty remains so the Winter Storm Watch will continue until
we have a better idea of where this gradient sets up.
Snow will begin to develop across the Dakotas late tonight and
build eastward into west central Minnesota late Friday morning,
reaching east central Minnesota late Friday evening. There may be
a brief period of rain or sleet, but it is expected to turn to
heavy snow quickly as temperatures cool to near freezing.
Snowfall amounts will range from 6 to 10 inches across western
and southern Minnesota. As mentioned before, there will be a sharp
gradient in amounts near the Mississippi River, with possibly little
or no snow northeast of there. Any shift would lead to significant
forecast changes near this gradient, including in the Twin Cities
metro.
MNZ047-055-056-230500-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0005.180323T1500Z-180324T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0005.180323T2100Z-180324T1500Z/
Stevens-Swift-Chippewa-
Including the cities of Morris, Benson, and Montevideo
355 PM CDT Thu Mar 22 2018
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CDT
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 6 to 10 inches are expected.
* WHERE...Stevens, Swift and Chippewa Counties.
* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 10 AM CDT Saturday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions.
Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will cause patchy blowing and
drifting snow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. The latest
road conditions for Minnesota can be found at 511mn.org and for
Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in either state.
Check forecast updates, especially if you will be traveling in Minnesota Friday afternoon into early Saturday.
Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can also see weather updates on the MPR news live weather blog.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.