Frigid now, snow Saturday; Valentine’s Day warming trend?
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Our forecast might best be described by a line in that infamous Weather Ball commercial.
"When the Weather Ball is wearing green. No weather changes are foreseen."
Yes weather fans, I am a weather geek raised in Minnesota.
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Temperature forecast: Status quo
Our forecast for the next several days basically reads: What you see is what you get.
Chilled arctic air is here to stay into next week. Super Bowl Sunday still looks frigid. We will have to stay below 16 degrees for the high Sunday to own the record for the coldest Super Bowl for any host city on record. No problem.
Saturday snow
The bulk of the forecast model guidance still zips a clipper through southern Minnesota Saturday. The early read suggests another inch or two of fresh fluff.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System version of events suggests a burst of light to moderate snow surrounding the midday hours Saturday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model roughly agrees with this timing.
Pattern change ahead?
The upper-air pattern has delivered fairly persistent cold to the eastern half of the U.S. the past several weeks.
Several medium-range guidance products now suggest the wintry upper air pattern may break around Valentine's Day. The upper-air pattern appears ready to transition to milder Pacific flow that week.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center grabs hold of the notion of warmer than average air spilling east across the United States in the 8- to 14-day range.
NOAA's GFS output has been consistent for a few runs now. It suggests a string of mild days in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Those numbers could be conservative if the pattern unfolds as advertised.
January in the books
January came in with slightly above average temperatures in the Twin Cities. We also logged 20 inches of snow which helped mitigate the season snow drought.
Details courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service.
Stay warm Minnesota.