A cool Sunday, with frost possible Sunday night; Ophelia heading toward Ireland
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It was soggy in much of Minnesota Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Much of the Twin Cities metro area saw more than one half inch of rain, with Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport recording a total of .56 inches.
Parts of the metro area recorded just under one inch of rain.
Here are some addition local rainfall totals, from the Twin Cities NWS:
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Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1014 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017
...Highest Rainfall Reports from the Past 24 Hours...
Location Amount Time/Date Provider
Shakopee 1NW 0.96 in 1000 AM 10/15 CWOP
Columbia Hgts 1S 0.95 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Golden Valley 0.95 in 0736 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Camp Ripley 4E 0.93 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Hastings (L/D 2) 0.90 in 0800 AM 10/15 COOP
Cottage Grove 1ESE 0.89 in 0957 AM 10/15 CWOP
Paynesville AP 0.89 in 0653 AM 10/15 AWOS
Victoria 2ENE 0.88 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Eagan 1NW 0.87 in 0745 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
St. Louis Park 0.84 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Robbinsdale 0.82 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Little Falls 0.82 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Little Falls 2SSE 0.81 in 0907 AM 10/15 RAWS
St Croix Falls 7ESE 0.81 in 0600 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Lake Minnetonka 1WSW 0.80 in 1001 AM 10/15 CWOP
Cottage Grove 0.80 in 0959 AM 10/15 CWOP
Victoria 1WSW 0.80 in 0958 AM 10/15 CWOP
Burnsville 2SSW 0.80 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Burnsville 3SSW 0.80 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
River Falls 1S 0.80 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
El Paso 1NW 0.80 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Minnetonka 0.79 in 0955 AM 10/15 CWOP
Clontarf 0.79 in 0945 AM 10/15 GOES
Roseville 2WNW 0.79 in 0600 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Sartell 1SSE 0.79 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Benson 0.78 in 0945 AM 10/15 GOES
Milan 5E 0.78 in 0945 AM 10/15 USARMY-COE
St. Cloud (SCSU) 0.78 in 0700 AM 10/15 UCOOP
Hugo 2WSW 0.77 in 1000 AM 10/15 CWOP
Victoria 1WSW 0.77 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Avon 4ESE 0.76 in 0944 AM 10/15 CWOP
Paynesville 1SSW 0.76 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Cornell 4W 0.76 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Benson 0.75 in 0945 AM 10/15 GOES
Roberts 0.75 in 0800 AM 10/15 COOP
Balsam Lake 4SE 0.75 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Bloomer 0.74 in 0800 AM 10/15 COOP
Farmington 3E 0.74 in 0800 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Benson 0.73 in 0930 AM 10/15 GOES
Jordan 6E 0.73 in 0958 AM 10/15 CWOP
St. Martin 1NW 0.73 in 0900 AM 10/15 HADS
Roseville 1NW 0.72 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
St. Joseph 0.72 in 0700 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Afton 1E 0.71 in 0900 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Sobieski 3E 0.71 in 1000 AM 10/15 HADS
Eagan 2ESE 0.70 in 0730 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Watkins 3WSW 0.70 in 0900 AM 10/15 COCORAHS
Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
One inch or more of rain fell in some areas between Sandstone and Duluth, and also in an area northwest of Two Harbors, based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 24 hour estimated rainfall map ending at 7 a.m. Sunday:
Sunday will be dry for most of us, but one forecast model hints at a late day sprinkle chance in central and east-central Minnesota.
Other models show no rain at all.
Temperature trends
Highs are expected to reach only the upper 40s in about the northern third of Minnesota Sunday afternoon.
Lower 50s will be common elsewhere.
Our average Twin Cities metro area high is 59 degrees this time of year, so this will be a cool Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures dip into the 30s over most of Minnesota late Sunday night/early Monday morning, so frost is a definite possibility.
It might be a good idea to cover tender outdoor plants, or bring potted and hanging plants indoors Sunday night.
After Monday morning we'll see a warming trend.
Monday highs reach the lower 60s in much of Minnesota, with 50s northeast:
Tuesday will be even warmer, with many spots in central and southern Minnesota touching 70 in the afternoon:
Twin Cities metro area highs are extended to reach the lower 70s Wednesday through Friday.
Hurricane Ophelia moves toward Ireland
We don't often hear the words "hurricane" and "Ireland" in the same sentence:
Ophelia will have lost it's tropical characteristics by Monday and will be a post-tropical cyclone.
Although Ophelia will no longer be a hurricane on Monday, she is still expected to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to parts of Ireland.
Here's Ophelia's projected path, from the National Hurricane Center:
And the complete Sunday morning Ophelia update from NHC:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017
...OPHELIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.6N 16.0W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ENE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 16.0 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of the post-tropical cyclone will
approach Ireland tomorrow morning. However, strong winds and rains
should begin earlier.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, but Ophelia should
maintain hurricane force winds until it reaches Ireland.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.