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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Stormy Monday: Flash flood watch into Tuesday AM

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Flashing and splashing

The atmosphere over Minnesota feels more June than October. Sticky dew points in the 60s pool along a stalled, troubled front tonight. A parade of crackling thunderstorms unloads torrential rainfall bursts.

Flash flood watch

T-Storms with locally heavy downpours move along the stalled frontal zone tonight. Local streets, creeks, and rivers brimming with floodwater is likely. Flash flood warnings may be issued. A flash flood watch continues tonight for a big chunk of Minnesota. If this were snow...

10 2 ffw2

Multi-inch totals

Some areas already logged over an inch of rain Monday.

"Training" echoes

Storms tonight will "train" over the same ground near the frontal zone. I still think we'll see a corridor of 1" to 3"+ rainfall, with some local totals in excess of 4" or 5" possible. Willmar, the northwest Twin Cities, St. Cloud, Duluth and the North Shore will all have flood potential tonight.

Here's NOAA's NAM model rainfall output.

01 2 nam
NOAA NAM rainfall via College of Dupage.

Drying out late Tuesday

The low pressure storm wave pushes rain east of Minnesota late Tuesday. High pressure builds in Wednesday with a return to sunny skies. I like the looks of Canada's GEM model with this system.

10 2 cmc
Canadian GEM model via tropical tidbits.

More like October

The thermometer at MSP Airport managed to squeak out 70 degrees today. Temperatures in the lower 60s arrive later this week.

Warm September

September felt like a 2nd August across much of Minnesota. Temps ran over 5-degrees warmer than average int he Twin Cities. By my count 22 of the past 24 months have been warmer than average in the Twin Cities.

It was dry in the metro, but heavier rainfall totals favored parts of central and northern Minnesota.

Hazard simplification kicks in

Communicating weather is as important as the forecast itself. The NWS is making a good move IMO to streamline weather terminology.

Stay dry.