Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News

Irma: 2nd strongest Atlantic hurricane; track uncertainties persist

Crunch time

It's almost Wednesday. We're near the 48 hour mark before potential onset of tropical storm conditions in Florida. And we still don't know precisely where Irma, the 2nd strongest hurricane in Atlantic history, will land.

9 5 Iram TS onset
NOAA NHC

Irma: 2nd strongest hurricane in Atlantic history

Irma is a ferocious looking storm. Her 185 mph winds make her the 2nd strongest hurricane in Atlantic history.

200 mph?

Irma is pushing the theoretical bounds for Atlantic hurricane intensity. If her winds reach 200 mph as some meteorologists caution, it will shatter the record for strongest Atlantic storm.

Track uncertainties persist

I'm getting seriously concerned about evacuations in Florida. The Florida peninsula is relatively narrow. It's just 113 miles between Fort Meyers and Fort Lauderdale.

A hurricane like Irma tracking parallel to the Florida peninsula presents a major evacuation puzzle. Who do you tell to evacuate when forecast hurricane tracks are still viable for both coasts?

West or east?

Today's European model (ECMWF) spits out a Florida Gulf Coast landfall. This would be a major disaster for Fort Meyers, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville. Again, this is just one model solution.

9 5 12Z ECMWF 2
ECMWF model via tropical tidbits.

The same model run from NOAA's GFS put Miami in the target zone. This is a potentially catastrophic scenario for Florida's heavily populated and pricey east coast. Again, this is one model solution, but it clearly shows the uncertainty of what we are facing nearly 72 hours before a potential landfall.

9 5 12 Z GFS
NOAA GFS via tropical tidbits.

The latest 18Z GFS model tosses up a prayerful right turn before the Florida peninsula, then slams a still devastating Hurricane Irma into North Carolina. That would be horrible for the Carolinas. But for the greater good, this might be the best scenario for where Irma will come ashore.

9 5 18 z gfs
NOAA 18Z GFS run via tropical tidbits.

The wider spaghetti tracks still show considerable uncertainty in forecast tracks for Irma.

Bottom line: Irma presents a very high degree of  operational difficulty for meteorologists, emergency managers, and people potentially in Irma's path. We still can't say precisely where Irma will land, or pinpoint the potentially catastrophic strike zone.

Stay tuned.