Harvey’s rains continue; weekend rain chances in Minnesota
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Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Lockport, Texas around 10 p.m. Friday evening:
Harvey was a major (Category 4) hurricane when it came ashore.
As of 10 a.m. Saturday, Harvey had weakened to a Category 1 hurricane, with max winds of 75 mph.
Here's the Saturday morning update on Harvey, from the National Hurricane Center:
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Harvey Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017
...HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS...
...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 97.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM W OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF SAN ANTONIO TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning for the Texas coast south of Port Aransas
has been discontinued.
The Hurricane Warning for the Texas coast has been replaced with a
Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to High Island Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas
Hurricane warnings continue for inland areas near the center of
Harvey. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service office.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the
indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see
the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Harvey was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 97.3 West. Harvey is
moving slowly toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and little
motion is anticipated during the next several days.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. These winds are confined to a small area near the
center. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Harvey
is expected to become a tropical storm this afternoon.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the
middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same
time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country
and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude
will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. A list of
rainfall observations compiled by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center
can be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Aransas to Sargent...4 to 7 ft
Sargent to High Island including Galveston Bay...2 to 4 ft
High Island to Morgan City...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the
area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are occuring inland near the core
of Harvey. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of
the tropical storm warning area, and are likely to persist along
portions of the coast through at least Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the Texas,
Louisiana, and northeast Mexico coasts. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today and tonight near the middle
and upper Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana.
Hurricane Harvey's sustained winds are expected to drop below 74 mph Saturday afternoon, and Hurricane Harvey will become Tropical Storm Harvey.
In their 7 a.m. hurricane discussion, the NHC stated:
Harvey is expected to slow down through the day and meander over
southeastern Texas through the middle of next week.
The slow, meandering nature of Harvey's path means that a lot of rain will fall over a large part of south Texas.
Many areas have already seen over 5 inches of rain, and some spots have seen over 10 inches as of Saturday morning.
Here is the rainfall map as of 8 a.m. Saturday, courtesy of the NWS:
Updated rainfall totals will be posted by the NWS.
The map of potential additional rainfall Saturday through Wednesday night looks like this:
Catastrophic flooding is expected in many areas.
The Saturday morning update from the Houston office of the National Weather Service included the following discussion of flooding:
* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain will continue to unfold
across Southeast Texas over the next 3 to 5 days. Remain well guarded
against life-threatening flood waters having possible catastrophic
impacts. If realized, these impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control
systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.
Harvey videos
Minnesota rain chances
Most of Minnesota will see periods of rain Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon.
By mid afternoon into Saturday evening, the chance of showers will be mainly over eastern Minnesota.
An isolated thunderstorm is also possible.
On Sunday, the best chance of scattered showers will be over northeastern Minnesota.
The Twin Cities metro area could see a few scattered showers/isolated t-storm Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern on Sunday:
Temperature trends
Some lower 70s are possible in west-central, southwestern and south-central Minnesota Saturday afternoon, with mostly 60s elsewhere in our favorite state.
On Sunday, most spots in Minnesota top 70 degrees, with 60s in the northeast:
Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the lower 70s Monday, near 80 Tuesday, then lower 80s on Wednesday.
Our average high temp is 79 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.