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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Slow motion autumn lingers into November

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What October?

Another month, another warm entry into the climate books in Minnesota. Still no freeze at MSP Airport. Still on track for the longest growing season at MSP on record going back 143 years. Your garden is in a state of confusion.

Should I stay or should I grow?

Our perpetual late summer-autumn time warp continues into at least the first week of November. Temperatures run about 10 degrees above average this week. NOAA's GFS hints at colder air and the potential for a freeze around November 13th, a week from Sunday. Until then, your petunias may be safe.

What a year.

halloween-rose-2016
Halloween rose at the Huttner Weather Lab. Photo: Paul Huttner/MPR News

  • +4.0 degrees - October temps vs. average at MSP Airport

  • 14th straight warmer than average month at MSP Airport

  • +4.1 degrees vs. average at MSP September 2015 thru October 2016

1031-msp

Mild start to November

The maps continue to come up warm as we ease into November. Our mild Halloween drizzle gives way to more sun the next few days as high pressure slowly builds in from the west.

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NOAA

We shouldn't be surprised by the mild autumn the way weather patterns have persisted for the past 14 months. Sunshine and 60 degrees the first week of November?

Somebody pinch me.

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Graphic: Twin Cities NWS

Note the warmer than average blobs over the Midwest and Arctic this week. Meanwhile Siberia chills with expanding snow cover.

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Graphic: Climate Reanalyzer

Looking at the maps into next weekend, my read is forecast highs in the low 60s may be too conservative.

The jet stream takes another vacation in Canada. Minnesota rides under an expanding ridge of mild high pressure aloft. Just plain weird for the first weekend in November.

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NOAA

If we get enough sun and avoid fog overnight, temperatures could reach the upper 60s, and even 70 degrees again in southern Minnesota and maybe the Twin Cities next weekend.

Welcome to the land of the 7 month boating season.

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Custom Weather

Colder by November 11th to 13th?

NOAA's GFS has been hinting at a possible freeze somewhere between November 11th to 13th. Colder weather may arrive the second week of November, but NOAA's Climate Prediction Center still favors warmer than average temperatures overall through November 14th.

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NOAA

Is the other weather shoe ready to drop in late November?

Stay tuned.