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Updraft® - Minnesota Weather News
Paul Huttner

Rain develops Tuesday, Halloween looking milder

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Slow Motion Autumn

Minnesota is easing into fall this year. October is running 4 degrees warmer than average in the Twin Cities. Sunny pleasantly cool days have been plentiful. Vibrant fall color splashes still decorate the Autumn landscape.

In case anyone asks, this is the 14th straight warmer than average month at MSP Airport. Our remarkable string of warm months began last September, with temperatures spiked to a balmy +5.9 degrees vs. average as last winter's El Niño kicked in.

Cooler waters in the tropical Pacific should bring us a colder winter than last year across Minnesota. But it will take the mother of all pattern changes to fully break our string of warmth over the past year. I'm not fully buying into NOAA's predictions of a colder than average winter across the Upper Midwest just yet. Also, Minnesota's longer term wintertime warming signal is the strongest in the nation. Look for my full winter outlook early next week.

In the meantime our extended 2016 growing season continues.

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Tuesday rain

It's been a nice long dry spell since last Monday's unusual October bout of severe weather. Farmers have had a chance to get into the fields and push the harvest along. Sump pumps have taken a well deserved nap.

The rain returns Tuesday as showers blossom ahead of the next low pressure system.

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Tuesday morning should stay dry, but rain chances increase the Twin Cities later in the afternoon. The steadiest rain arrives Tuesday night. NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model captures the trends, Scattered showers late tomorrow with more concentrated bands Tuesday night.

[image]

Another soaking rain falls Tuesday night across a good chink of Minnesota with this system. The best bet for Twin Cities rainfall totals appears to be in the .50" to 1" range by Wednesday. Some 1"+ totals are likely in southern Minnesota, and around Fargo.

[image]

Here's the graphic layout for the Twin Cities this week.

[image]

Halloween 2016: Milder than average?

The maps don't look to scary for Halloween next Monday. A relatively mild southwest upper air flow sets up for Halloween.

[image]

Models suggest a high temp near 60 is possible on Halloween, with trick or treat temps falling through the 50s.

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Stay tuned.