Spectacular weekend ahead, why NOAA predicts harsh winter

Seasonal weather forecasts have come a long way in the past 30 years. After the intense El Niño event in the early 1980s, forecasters started to recognize certain predictable weather patterns emerging across the globe in winter as tropical Pacific Ocean waters warmed.

I was working in Arizona during the Super El Niño event of 1997-98. That summer and fall, I did a series of reports called "The El Niño Factor" that explained how the coming El Niño event would likely produce a very wet winter in the desert, with heavy mountain snows.

That seasonal forecast was spot on.

Fast forward to 2016. Last winter's massive El Niño event delivered on the predicted forecast for one of the mildest winters on record in Minnesota. Now, NOAA forecasters are banking on a developing La Niña to boost the odds of a colder than average winter across Minnesota and the Upper Midwest.

Will the baby La Niña developing in the tropical Pacific this winter be strong enough to overcome the powerful longer-term trend of milder winters in Minnesota?

Spectacular weekend ahead

One more long stroll around the lake in vivid fall color. One more round of golf. One more bike ride.

As Forrest Gump might say, this could be the "last best good" weekend of fall in Minnesota. High pressure slides east, and opens up the door to milder southerly wind flow as we head into the weekend.

Temperatures warm a few degrees Friday, then rise into the 60s by Saturday afternoon. Rapid City basks in 70s Saturday. WCCO-TV weather legend Bud Kraehling used to call Rapid City "The Banana Belt."

Crisp morning and sunny milder afternoons this weekend. Does it get any better Minnesota?

NOAA: Harsh winter for Minnesota?

NOAA is out today with the seasonal outlooks for winter across the United States. The bottom line? They're banking on the developing La Niña in the tropical Pacific to increase the odds of a colder than average winter across Minnesota and the Northern Plains.

The snowfall forecast trends also favors more snow in La Niña winters.

Here's a good explainer on why NOAA is leaning colder for Minnesota this winter.

Confidence factor?

Last winter was one of the mildest on record in Minnesota. Temperatures ran about 6 degrees warmer than average last winter. The Twin Cities managed just 36.7 inches of snowfall.

So it shouldn't take a rocket scientist to predict a colder winter than last year across Minnesota.

But longer-term trends show Minnesota is the fastest warming state in winter in the USA.

The big question this winter may be, will the baby La Niña in the tropical Pacific be enough to overcome longer term background hum of the strong climate warming signal in Minnesota winters?

Time to see if we can pick out the forecast signal from the noise. I'll have my winter forecast out around Nov. 1.

Stay tuned.