Mild weekend; rare Oregon coast tornado strike

Seasonal transition

Fading daylight. Stronger winds. Dramatic temperature swings. All trademarks of fall in Minnesota.

This weekend brings above average temperatures, with a mixed bag of clouds and sunny hours. Saturday features more clouds than sun, and a few patchy showers are possible. Sunday looks like the sunnier day of the weekend.

The weather maps are in a state of seasonal transition now. Long "Rossby" waves in the upper atmosphere jockey for position, as colder air pools in growing Arctic darkness. Minnesota rides the milder side of October this weekend. Chilly fall temperatures return next week.

Our increasingly colorful landscape shines during the sunny hours this weekend.

• 59 degrees - average high temperature at MSP this weekend

• +2.8 degrees  - temps vs. average so far in October at MSP

Metro fall color peak this weekend

Colors are now approaching the elusive peak in the Twin Cities. 'Peak' color may be subjective, but with 75% to 100% color now reported near the Twin Cities, it's pretty close. Get out there.

Family of fronts

Low pressure tracks north of Minnesota this weekend. Clouds and sun mix Saturday, more sunny hours arrive Sunday. A family of fronts brings shifting winds and spotty showers. The best chance for organized rainfall arrives Sunday night.

Overall Sunday looks like the best day for one last boat ride, another walk or bike ride around the lakes. Rain returns Sunday night.

Chilly air returns next week with another fall front. Highs return to the 50s next week. After this weekend the odds of more 70 degree days drops dramatically.

Colder by Halloween?

The latest longer range maps suggest the days leading up to Halloween could be quite chilly. A major jet stream dip over the Upper Midwest could bring the coldest, sub-freezing air of the season.

High in the 40s and lows in the 20s the week before Halloween? We'll see.

Wettest year on record 

Yes it's been wet out there. Many Minnesota communities continue to be on pace for the wettest year on record. St. James and Waseca are already locked in. Here's more from Mark Seeley.

Wet trend continues:

Following a wet first week of the month (some reported record daily rainfall on the 5th) rainfall has been less during the second week generally, but some observers reported a half inch to over an inch of rainfall over the second week of the month. Many have already reported a monthly total that exceeds the October average (over 2 inches). Waseca has already reported 50.59 inches of precipitation in 2016, a new annual record for that location, and there are still two and a half months left in the year. St James (Watonwan County) reports a total precipitation for the year so far of 47.47 inches which is already an all-time record there as well.

Hints of a more rigorous winter?

I'm in the early phases of putting together my winter forecast outlook which comes out around November 1st. So far the early signals favor a more rigorous winter than last year. That wouldn't take much, since last winter was one of the mildest on record across Minnesota. But with a borderline La Nina event, and some other early indicators, the smart money is on more snowfall and colder temps this winter as compared to last winter.

The weather team at Twin Cities-based Schneider Electric is out with a very carefully worded map for the upcoming. Not many specifics here, but an interesting early outlook for the upcoming U.S. winter.

Stay tuned.

Rare Oregon coast tornado

A powerful storm spinning into the Oregon coast spun up rare tornadoes on the coast.

Damage in Manzanita is extensive.

The tornado tracked right into town from the coast.

The Portland NWS doppler picked up the velocity couplet as the twister tore into town.