Rainy overnight, Matthew forecast track drama grows

We're getting of lucky in Minnesota this week.

A band of showers and embedded T-Storms works slowly east across Minnesota overnight. The best chance for an inch of rainfall blankets west central Minnesota from Redwood Falls to Alex.

NOAA's NAM 4 km model paints rainfall wave #1 tonight. A dry slot works in late Wednesday into Thursday before wave #2 rides in later Thursday.

To the maps.

Low pressure drags a cold front through Minnesota overnight. Skies turn sunny again Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning before the next rain wave moves in from the southwest Thursday afternoon and evening. Watch the lower right corner as Hurricane Matthew makes an approach toward eastern Florida.

Here are the nuts and bolts of the Twin Cities forecast into Saturday. Two shots of rain with sun in between. Temps crash to late October levels...about 20 degrees cooler late this week with a frosty morning Saturday.

Frost right on schedule?

If you wake up to frost Saturday morning October 8th, it will be about average for the date of the first metro frost.

What defines "Indian Summer?"

After the first frost, the Glossary of the AMS defines Indian Summer as...

A period, in mid- or late autumn, of abnormally warm weather, generally clear skies, sunny but hazy days, and cool nights.

In New England, at least one killing frost and preferably a substantial period of normally cool weather must precede this warm spell in order for it to be considered a true "Indian summer." It does not occur every year, and in some years there may be two or three Indian summers. The term is most often heard in the northeastern United States, but its usage extends throughout English- speaking countries. It dates back at least to 1778, but its origin is not certain; the most probable suggestions relate it to the way that the American Indians availed themselves of this extra opportunity to increase their winter stores. The comparable period in Europe is termed the Old Wives' summer, and, poetically, may be referred to as halcyon days. In England, dependent upon dates of occurrence, such a period may be called St. Martin's summer, St. Luke's summer, and formerly All-hallown summer.

So it's a bit subjective, but most of Minnesota may qualify for true Indian Summer by mid to late October.

Indian Summer next week?

The upper air pattern over North America looks favorable for a return to warmth across the Rockies and Midwest next week.

The longer range temperature maps are leaning warmer than average once again as we move into mid-October. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center paints a sea of red across the USA through October 18th.

NOAA's GFS is coming up warm for Minnesota. Check out the string of days in the 70s, with a few 80s thrown in as we hit mid October. A 7 month boating and 8 month golf season this year?

BULLETIN

HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 27

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016

500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW

ALREADY POUNDING THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.8N 74.3W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ESE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA

ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES

Hurricane Matthew: Growing forecast track drama

Here's what we know about Hurricane Matthew.

• Matthew made landfall along the western tip of Haiti this morning as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph sustained winds.

• Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds.

• As of this post the well defined eyewall is raking the eastern tip of Cuba.

• Matthew will cross eastern Cuba overnight and head into the Bahamas Wednesday.

• Matthew will likely remain a dangerous major hurricane as it moves through the Bahamas Wednesday.

After that the forecast picture gets a little more fuzzy with Matthew. Here are the trends, and some of the 'unknowns' as of Tuesday evening.

• Matthew is likely to approach and parallel Florida's east coast late Thursday and Friday.

• Hurricane watches have been posted for eastern Florida.

• Matthew is still likely to be a major hurricane with winds up to 130 mph as it strafes Florida's east coast.

•  The official NHC track keeps the center of Matthew just offshore from Florida's east coast. However, the NHC track has been moving steadily westward with forecast model trends.

• Even if the center stays offshore, the length of eastern Florida's coast could see near 100 mph wind gusts as Matthew buzzes the coast. Remember, destructive hurricane forecast winds can extend well away from the center.

• A few models in the westward part of the forecast track envelope bring the center of Matthew ashore along Florida's east coast. This would have a devastating, and potentially multi-billion dollar impact from Palm Beach through the Space Coast to Jacksonville.

Euro: Forecast loop?

Today's Euro run threw yet another monkey wrench into possible solution for Matthew's eventual track. The Euro now forecasts a coastal brush from Florida to Georgia and South Carolina, then a loop back across Florida once again.

A few other models hint at the loop. Many still track Matthew northeast along the U.S. east coast.

Matthew's eventual impact is still a major and potentially devastating question mark for the U.S. east coast this week.

Stay tuned.

Programming Note: Please join me on MPR News stations Wednesday morning at 9:25 am as I break down the latest on Hurricane Matthew with Bob Henson from Weather Underground and more excellent guests.