Magical October Monday, fall weather pattern ahead this week
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“I'm so glad I live in a world where there are Octobers.” ― L.M. Montgomery, Anne of Green Gables
What October?
The first three days of this month feel like late summer around Minnesota. October in Minnesota can be the best month of the year. It also reminds us that summer is not eternal after all.
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This week starts in late summer mode. By the weekend, Jack Frost nips at Minnesota once again. This time, the Twin Cities metro may be decked out in a frosty icing by Saturday morning. The long summer nap for your furnace ends late this week.
A potent low pressure system rides across the U.S. Canada border this week. The trailing cold front sparks rounds of showers and T-Storms Tuesday. There is little risk of severe weather across Minnesota Tuesday, but the front brings the first soaking in a week for many communities.
Rainfall may exceed an inch across Minnesota with Tuesday's passing front. The best chance for metro rains arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Weekend frost potential
Behind the front, the season's coolest air mass punches south by this weekend. Highs will not climb out of the 50s by Friday, and low dip into the 30s Saturday morning.
Frost looks likely in the Twin Cities suburbs Saturday morning. The inner metro core may escape 32 degrees, but it's going to be close.
Milder next week
Next week starts on a milder note. Northwest flow aloft over the weekend gives way to a milder Pacific air mass by next Monday.
Temperatures overall favor warmer than average readings as we move deeper into October. I can see a few more days in the 70s this month.
Hurricane Matthew first Category 5 since 2007
Hurricane Matthew's winds peaked at an incredible 160 mph Sunday. Matthew up-cycled again overnight, and is now a symmetric and still extremely dangerous Category 4 storm.
Next the storm lashes Haiti and eastern Cuba, before churning north into the Bahamas this week.
The overnight Euro run brings the storm dangerously close to Florida later this week.
Most of the track guidance still keeps the center off shore from the eastern USA.
Stay tuned.