Hermine update and Minnesota fair weather
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We're on a weather winning streak!
We'll enjoy sunshine and scattered clouds today, with highs in the mid to upper 70s over most of Minnesota:
Some spots in the Twin Cities could hit 77 or 78.
The coolest highs today will be some lower 70s, in northeastern Minnesota.
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Highs on Saturday will be a bit warmer in many spots:
Dew points will creep up into the upper 50s Saturday afternoon, and they will be in the 60s on Sunday and Monday.
Rain chances
The high pressure system that has given us this beautiful stretch of weather will slide eastward late Saturday through Sunday:
Western Minnesota could see scattered showers and thunderstorms late Saturday and Sunday. The thunderstorm chance spreads across the remainder of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area, Sunday night.
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather for northwestern Minnesota Sunday and Sunday night:
A marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Minnesota on Labor Day.
Hermine and Lester
Hurricane Hermine made landfall at 1:30 a.m. EDT just east of St. Marks, Florida. It came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane, with max winds of 80 mph. Hermine is the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years, since Wilma hit south Florida in 2005.
Hurricanes usually weaken after they come ashore, because they lose the energy provided by the warm water. They also encounter surface friction over land.
Hermine has weakened to tropical storm strength, and is centered over south Georgia this morning. It has max winds of 60 mph, and it will spread heavy rain and strong winds across much of Georgia and the Carolinas as it moves northeastward today and tonight:
Here is the latest Hermine advisory:
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016
...HERMINE WEAKENING BUT WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...
...STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 82.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NE OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the
Ochlockonee River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Ochlockonee River
* Flagler/Volusia County line to Duck
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Duck to Sandy Hook
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward
* Southern Delaware Bay
Interests elsewhere along the United States northeast coast should
monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hermine was
located inland inland over southern Georgia near latitude 31.2
North, longitude 82.9 West. Hermine is moving toward the
north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue today and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Hermine will continue to move across southeastern Georgia today,
move across the coastal Carolinas tonight and move offshore of the
North Carolina coast on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast while the center of
Hermine remains over land. Some re-strengthening is expected after
the center moves offshore of the North Carolina coast on Saturday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Recently reported wind gusts include 46 mph (74
km/h) at Brunswick, Georgia, and St. Augustine, Florida.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.21 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue near the
center of Hermine this morning and spread northward within the
warning area along the Atlantic coast later today and tonight.
Winds in the tropical storm warning area along the Gulf coast of
Florida should gradually diminish today. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area on Saturday and Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Hazardous storm
surge will continue this morning along the Florida Gulf coast in
areas of onshore winds.
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the
peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River to Bonita Beach...including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 feet
Florida-Georgia line to Tidewater of Virginia...1 to 3 feet
RAINFALL: Hermine is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over the southeastern United States
from northwest Florida through southern and eastern Georgia into
South Carolina and eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches. These rains may cause life-threatening
floods and flash floods. Heavy rain could reach the coastal
Mid-Atlantic states from Virginia to New Jersey beginning early
Saturday.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning across
northern Florida and southern Georgia. The tornado risk will spread
across the eastern Carolinas later today.
The National Hurricane Center posts frequent updates on Tropical Storm Hermine. Also, you can find some great information at #Hermine.
Now, lets look to the west:
The Hawaiian Islands could be affected by Hurricane Lester in the next 24-48 hours. A hurricane watch is in effect for most of the Hawaiian Island chain.
Hurricane Lester is east of Hawaii, moving west-northwest:
Hurricane Lester is a category 2 hurricane this morning, with max winds of 110 mph.
Here is the most recent hurricane advisory:
HURRICANE LESTER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP132016
200 AM HST FRI SEP 02 2016
...LESTER WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
...NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 147.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane force winds are possible
within the watch area. A Hurricane Watch is typically issued 48
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult
or dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the
progress of Lester.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lester was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 147.8 West. Lester is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Lester will pass close to the main Hawaiian
Islands this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of
days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible over Hawaii and Maui
Counties beginning late tonight and continuing through Saturday.
Hurricane conditions are possible over Oahu beginning Saturday and
continuing through Saturday night.
SURF: Large swells generated by Lester will arrive in Hawaiian
waters the next couple of days, including the northwestern Hawaiian
Islands. Surf generated by these swells will peak this weekend in
the main Hawaiian Islands, becoming very large and possibly damaging
along exposed shorelines.
RAIN: Heavy rains associated with Lester may impact Hawaii and
Maui counties late tonight into Saturday, and may impact Oahu
Saturday and Saturday night.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will post updates on Hurricane Lester.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates at 7:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday on Minnesota Public Radio.