Hermine strengthens toward hurricane force

Florida's 11-year hurricane drought may be about to end.

Tropical Storm Hermine is intensifying today, and is forecast to reach hurricane force by tonight before making landfall in Florida's Big Bend area.

Hermine picked up steam overnight and continues to show signs of intensification over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The active eastern side of the storm will slam Florida's west coast today.

The Tampa Bay NWS reports Seminole near Tampa has already picked up almost 13-inches of rain from the lead waves of Hermine.

The main eastern rain bands of Hermine are pushing east onto Florida's west coast. Tampa's Doppler is lighting up.

Hermine is headed for landfall in Florida's Big Bend tonight. The storm then crosses Georgia and the Carolinas on the way northeast for Labor Day weekend.

In addition to hurricane force winds over 75 mph, heavy rainfall totals continue to be the primary impacts with Hermine over the southeast U.S..

Storm surge of 3 to 7 feet is possible along Florida's Gulf Coast near the Big bend tonight.

The big forecast question from D.C. to New Jersey and New York? Will Hermine stall, or make a left hook toward the coast? That is still very much an open question as we wait to see how the steering currents evolve over the next 72 hours. The latest suite of spaghetti models are split on the eventual track solution as Hermine moves northeast.

The usually trusty European model steers Hermine east of New Jersey by Sunday. NOAA's GFS model continues to show a close brush with the southern Jersey shore Sunday.

The slight eastward shift on the latest model trends may be good news for the Washington D.C. area.

Bottom line: Hermine will deliver the long forecast tropical storm and hurricane force punch to Florida's Gulf Coast today and tonight. The eventual precise track along the east coast Labor Day weekend remains in question, but most solutions favor a track slightly east of the Jersey coast Sunday.