8th wettest summer at MSP, Hermine aims for Florida
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Minnesota Monsoon
Unless you live in a cave or are deep in a perpetual Netflix binge coma this summer, you know it's been wet out there. Hopefully your lower level family room is dry. Persistent storm waves have dumped up to 23 inches of rain this summer in parts of Minnesota.
The meteorology behind one of the wettest summer on record? The jet stream takes summer vacation overhead. A persistent heat dome to the south pumps frequent high dew point episodes into the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The combination of heat, moisture and irritable jet stream fuels one of the most active 'heavy rain' summers I can remember.
The result?
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Many Minnesota towns have recorded 'top 10' rainfall totals this summer. Redwood Falls tallies the 2nd wettest summer on record with over 23 inches. It's the 6th wettest August and 8th wettest summer in the Twin Cities. The rain gauge at MSP Airport has brimmed with 17.40" since June 1st, the start of 'meteorological summer.' That's an extra month's rainfall this summer for the Twin Cities and much of central and southern Minnesota. The trend lines for heavy summer rainfall in Minnesota continue on an upward slope.
The Minnesota Climate Working Group has more on our memorably soggy summer across Minnesota.
The Summer of 2016 will be remembered for numerous heavy rain events in Minnesota. (Updated August 31, 2016)
The summer of 2016 has been stormy and wet for much of Minnesota. Some places in Pine County saw twelve inches of rain for June alone. For June to August two of the wettest areas in the state were Aitkin in Aitkin County with 23.29 inches of rain or 11.60 inches above the 1981-2010 normal. Brownton in McLeod County saw 24.58 inches or 11.78 inches above the 1981-2010 normal. Brainerd in Crow Wing County with 20.69 inches of precipitation or 10.18 inches above normal. Redwood Falls was even wetter with 22.11 inches of precipitation or 11.19 inches above normal. This is the wettest summer on record for Redwood Falls, with 2016 edging 1993 out for first place with 23.34 inches (1993 had 23.08 inches).
There area a few areas of the state that may not wind up being above normal for summer 2016 precipitation. Far southwestern Minnesota missed out on some of the heavier showers. Luverne in Roch County wound up with 10.23 inches for the summer or 1.31 inches short of the 1981-2010 normal. Across the border at Sioux Falls, The summer of 2016 is shaping up to be a dry summers with a 3.65 inch deficit.
There were two major flooding events including July 11-12, 2016 and August 10-11, 2016 There were other smaller heavy rain events of the summer as well including June 13, 2016, July 5-7, 2016, July 20, 2016 and July 23-24, 2016.
Welcome dry spell continues
The good weather news for most Minnesotans? Sunny dry Canadian high pressure nosing in from the north. Also watch the lower right corner of the map as Tropical Storm Hermine works up through the Carolina Coast.
Dry air mass
The main change in our air mass overhead this week? Dramatically lower dew points. I saw dew points in the upper 70s Monday across southern Minnesota. With dew points in the 40s and 50s, This air mass has less than half the overall moisture as the one we slogged through Monday.
Dry through Saturday
Our 4 to 5 day dry spell lasts through most of Saturday. The latest model trends suggest rainfall may hold off until late Saturday night or early Sunday across most of Minnesota. Here's the quick look forecast at a glance.
Labor Day weekend: Rains return
The forecast is trending slightly drier for Labor Day weekend. Right now Saturday looks mostly sunny, breezy and dry. Sunday still looks wet, a couple rounds of thundershowers look likely. The latest model trends suggest we may get a few dry hours early on Labor Day, before another wave of rain moves in Monday night.
Enjoy the current dry spell. NOAA's rainfall output paints another 1" to 3" across Minnesota in the next 7 days.
Long range: Still some whiffs of summer?
I'm not buying the string of 90s yet in the long range 15-day meteogram below, but it's still too early to rule out another 90 degree day before what we know as summer truly fades into fall.
Tropical Storm Hermine gathers steam
Peak hurricane season is fast approaching, and action is heating up in the tropical Atlantic. Tropical Storm Hermine was crowned the 8th named storm in the Atlantic basin today.
Hermine continues to flare and expand in the Gulf.
Hermine is gaining strength, and appears headed for a north Florida landfall late Thursday night.
The biggest threat for Florida remains heavy rainfall and resulting flooding. A swath of 6" to 10" is possible Florida's panhandle region.
The envelope of hurricane spaghetti tracks shifted west today. Hermine looks more likely to affect a big swath of the east coast from the Carolina to potentially New Jersey.
Along the western left side of the guidance, NOAA's GFS model continues to suggest a westward jog and possible landfall along the southern New Jersey coast Sunday.
Stay tuned.