Summer breeze today, tropical trouble brewing?

Welcome to summer again today across Minnesota. Southerly breezes blow in a warm and increasingly humid air mass today. Highs push into the upper 80s across Minnesota this afternoon.

Sticky front today

You'll notice the dew point rising today. Dew points in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees surge ahead of the next cold front which blows in Wednesday morning. Behind the front? A much drier air mass. Notice the blue on the dew point maps pushing a fall-like  air mass with dew points in the 30s into the western Dakotas..

Here's our next frontal system. Scattered thunderstorms arrive with the front tonight. A clean crisp air mass blows in behind the front.

Storm chances favor southern Minnesota

The Twin Cities could get clipped by a stray thunderstorm later this evening or overnight tonight. The highest chances for significant weather tonight are south of the Twin Cities along the Interstate 90 corridor.

The best chance for another summer soaking rain appears to fall south of the metro this evening and overnight. Again, the I-90 corridor, and from Mankato, Minn., to Eau Claire, Wis., is where the heaviest rains will likely fall.

Low severe risk

I agree with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center's assessment that the overall severe risk is very low across Minnesota today and tonight. Still one or two cells may approach severe limits, especially south of the metro. A higher 'slight' risk zone drapes across Iowa.

Soggy fields

This month's heavy rains have left many soggy fields across central and southern Minnesota. Surplus soil moisture is reported for many farms this week. Here's the latest Minnesota crop report.

Weather perfection-on-a-stick?

High pressure drifting overhead Thursday and Friday will deliver cool and pleasant weather for the first two days of the Minnesota State Fair this year. The longer range outlook brings some rain chances back in for the weekend, with warmer weather again next week. Here's the 15-day meteogram for Minneapolis-St. Paul via Custom Weather.

State Fair weather history

Some sun. Some heat. Some rain. A cool front. That's about par for the course during the 12-day run at the Minnesota State Fair.

Here's more on historical State Fair weather from the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

Temperatures can be highly variable as the summer begins to slip away. The sun is already setting about an hour earlier than it did in June. The average high temperature during the fair is in the mid to upper 70's with the average low temperature in the upper 50's to low 60's. There's been some extreme heat during the fair with 97 degrees on September 1. 1913 and also August 24, 2003. The coolest fair was 36 degrees on September 1, 1974.

On average it rains about 3 to 4 days during the fair's 12 day run. The wettest fair was in 1977 with 9.48 inches, and the driest fair was 2003 with only .02 inch of rain.

The largest rain event in the State Fair's history was 4.06 inches on August 30, 1977. At 8:20 pm heavy rains hit the State Fair. The U of M St. Paul Campus climate observatory ½ mile north of the fairgrounds saw 4.06 inches of rain. This caused some of the worst street flooding seen at the fairgrounds.

The bulk of the rain fell in a 3 1/2 hour period from 8:15 p.m. to 11:45 p.m. The grandstand show was canceled, and people had great difficulty trying to leave the fair. The Twin Cities International Airport saw 7.28 inches from this event, second only to the 1987 'Superstorm." People driving on I-94 leaving the fair found water "up to their hood ornaments" in low areas under bridges.

Minnesota getting off lucky?

We can be thankful for some nice weather to start the Fair this year. State fairs from Iowa to Illinois and Indiana have been plagued by nasty weather in the past week.

Iowa

DES MOINES, Iowa —Weather is being blamed for a drop in attendance at this year's Iowa State Fair. Some days were rainy, some extra hot and humid and some apparently were just right for going to the fair, which ended Sunday.

The attendance for the 11-day fair was 1,031,278. That's a drop of about 86,000 from last year's record-breaking 1,117,398.

Fair CEO Gary Slater told The Des Moines Register that "the numbers weren't down because of any other reason other than weather."

Illinois

Some Illinois State Fair vendors weren’t holding back Sunday while sharing their feelings on how poorly this year has gone.

“It’s been a disaster,” said Jim Rewerts, owner of Cajun’s Unlimited, known for its alligator on a stick. “My sales are down 70 percent. This is my last year.”

Jack Sturgeon, who started selling corn dogs at the Illinois State Fair in 1964, added: “This was the worst fair I’ve had in 53 years. I’m probably down 50 percent.”

Sunday marked the final day of the Illinois State Fair, which was plagued by a combination of thunderstorms, flash flooding, triple-digit heat indexes and power outages in the 11 days it was in operation.

Indiana

INDIANAPOLIS - Final numbers show this year’s Indiana State Fair had nearly 20 percent fewer attendees than last year’s event.

Indiana State Fair officials said late Sunday that overall attendance this year down 19.4 percent with about 730,000 visitors compared to last year, which had the fifth-largest crowds. Fair officials cited heat indexes of higher than 87 degrees and nine days of rain for the drop.

Tropical trouble brewing?

It's been a quiet season so far, but all weather eyes are focused on a more active pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Three separate disturbances are being watched for development.

Florida focus?

It's still early, but Florida is increasingly coming into focus as a potential storm zone by this weekend. As usual, there are still major model differences.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (on the right below) has a strong track record with tropical storms days in advance, and predicts a storm near Florida by this weekend. Not so much on the Global Forecast System. Here we go again?

Increasingly hurricane models favor a potential storm track near Florida this weekend.

Stay tuned.