Saturday night storms, heat arrives next week

In Minnesota our lives revolve around weather. It seems we bounce from one extreme weather event to the next. The checkout line conversation at Cub or Lund's revolves around the last storm, or the next one.

This weekend's weather babble includes Monday's tornadoes and flash floods. Cresting rivers in Stillwater. The next wave of storms late Saturday night into Sunday morning. A developing heat wave next week.

There's plenty of Minnesota Nice weather banter to connect with your fellow Minnesotans this weekend. Here's a primer for your weekend weather conversations.

Cresting rivers

The St. Croix River reached record levels near Grantsburg, WI Thursday. The St. Croix watershed got in on the heaviest rain zone as it drains both Minnesota and Wisconsin rivers like the Kettle and Namekagon.

The bubble of water from Monday's 'mega-rain' event works downstream toward Stillwater on the St. Croix this weekend. The river is already up more than 9 feet since Monday, and expected to crest by early Saturday.

Significant flooding has already occurred along the Rum and Snake Rivers in central Minnesota north of the Twin Cities. Yes, drones have changed the way we cover news, and weather.

Saturday night storms

The weekend starts quiet, then The next low pressure wave works eastward into Minnesota Saturday afternoon and evening.

Storms rumble across western Minnesota Saturday. The best chance for storms in the Twin Cities arrives late Saturday night into Sunday morning. I could see a few storms popping near the metro by midnight Saturday/Sunday...then another 5 am 'sunrise surprise' wake up call Sunday morning? Here's NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model simulated radar.

NOAA's SPC paints a slight risk for severe storms across southern Minnesota Saturday and Saturday night. Then we look ahead to the developing heat wave later next week.

Heat wave builds next week

There's no doubt it's going to get hot around here next week. But there is still uncertainty as to how sustained the worst of the heat and humidity will be over the next two weeks. Right now I don't see a comparison with the record setting 1936 heat wave, which produced 14-straight days above 90 degrees, 7 days above 100F and peaked at an all-time record 108 degrees on the Twin Cities on July 14, 1936. Yes, it looks hot for the next two weeks. But right now any comparison of the coming hot weather spell to the record 1936 heat wave is premature and probably just inaccurate hype.

It's still too early to be certain, but both NOAA's models and the Euro have backed off the heat slightly by next weekend. Minnesota may get some slight relief from the sustained 90+ heat in between heat bursts over the next two weeks. Still warm, but not continuously ghastly hot.

Here is the latest European model output for the next 10 days. Scattered storms Sunday morning. High temperatures peak in the low-90s Wednesday and mid-90s Thursday. Thursday's heat index values should top 100+ degrees. I've converted forecast temps to Fahrenheit.

The latest indications are the heat may come in two waves. The first heat wave arrives Wednesday and peaks Thursday into Friday. We may get some minor relief next weekend before the heat returns the week of July 25th over Minnesota.

The past few 16-day runs from NOAA's GFS have backed off considerably on the notion of prolonged 90+ heat in late July.

Forecast for the magnitude and duration of heat the next two weeks can and probably will change. But than again, that's the beauty of weather forecasting right? We still need human meteorologists who know how to decipher the cascade of model data. There's something I'm grateful for as we head into the weekend.

Stay tuned.