Chance of showers, isolated t-storm

We saw some early morning showers in parts of Minnesota, but those have moved on.  Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible later this afternoon and this evening.

The most active weather today and this evening will be from eastern Iowa into far southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. A low pressure system will ignite thunderstorms in those areas as it tracks eastward:

Here is the forecast rainfall pattern, from today through Thursday night, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale Forecast System:

You can see waves of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

Severe weather risk

The highest risk of severe weather today and tonight will be from eastern Iowa to far southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Those areas could see multiple tornadoes and widespread damaging winds and hail.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a moderate risk of severe weather over those areas, with a slight risk of severe weather over far southeastern counties of Minnesota:

Moderate risk is the second highest risk category used by the Storm Prediction Center:

Update to severe risk

Around midday, the Storm Prediction Center expanded the slight risk area for this afternoon and tonight. The slight risk area now covers much of southern Minnesota, including the southwestern part of the Twin Cities metro area:

Nice Thursday and Friday

A shower is possible over eastern Minnesota very early Thursday, but most of the day should be dry and partly sunny.

Highs in the 7os will be common on Thursday.

You can expect a lot of sunshine on Friday, and 80s will return to all but northeastern Minnesota:

Our Saturday weather looks unsettled. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially later in the day. We'll have forecast updates as we get closer to the weekend.