June Monsoon: Flash flood threat Tuesday?

The Doppler is working overtime lately.

An active June weather pattern is feeding low pressure waves toward Minnesota along a stalled, troubled front. Monday morning's deluge favored the east metro and southeast Minnesota. As usual with summertime convection, rainfall coverage was spotty in some areas and heavy in others. The Doppler storm total rainfall mode shows a band of vivid red, a gully-washing 2" to 4"+ rainfall swath through the east metro extending southeast along the Mississippi River.

Many 2" to 4" rainfall totals poured into the Twin Cities NWS early Monday morning. Weekend rains produced multi inch totals across much of central and southern Minnesota.

Next low pressure wave Tuesday

We come up for air overnight and early Tuesday. The next low pressure-warm front combo spins toward Minnesota late Tuesday and Wednesday packing more heavy rain producing showers and T-Storms. The best chance for more heavy rainfall? Late Tuesday through early Wednesday.

More 'heavy rainers'

Slow moving storms will dump more heavy rain as the front crawls slowly north from northern Iowa Tuesday. The highest risk for severe storms is south in Iowa and along the I-90 corridor. The Twin Cities rides the northern edge of the severe threat Tuesday. Many more 1" to 3"+ rainfall totals are likely by Wednesday morning.

NOAA's NAM 4 km resolution model paints more patchy multi-inch rainfall blotches over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa in the next 48 hours.

Flash flood risk

With saturated ground in many areas, the flash flood threat is there. If active storms stall over the same ground for a few hours we could see some more serious multi-inch totals. NOAA's flash flood guidance product suggests 2"+ rainfall totals in 3 hours will be enough to produce flash flooding in many southern Minnesota counties Tuesday.

For bigger rivers, significant river flooding is possible from the Twin Cities south and west if rainfall stalls Tuesday.

Sunny and warmer late this week

Highs hold in the 70s through mid-week. We get a welcome respite from soggy weather later this week. Summer returns, with sunshine and temps in the 80s. High push close to 90 degrees again by Sunday and Monday.

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